How Amazon’s Entry into NFL Streaming Will Affect Viewership — and Business

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Amazon is about to change how you watch — or don’t watch — the NFL.

After months of lucrative rights deals and high profile talent, “Thursday Night Football” will make its Amazon Prime debut on September 15. First up: an AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, featuring super rivals. Bowl aspirations and two of the game’s most electric young pitchers. It’s a great way to start things off.

Mind you – that’s a week 2 matchup. The NFL is certainly excited about its new partnership with America’s major retailer and the nearly $1 billion in annual rights payments that come with it. It’s just not limited to a streaming audience for the Sept. 8 season opener between the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills. NBC dominates that game. Which brings us to the crux of the change.

Since the arrival of the Redzone channel or perhaps in The 2006 premiere of “Thursday Night Football” itself is in the midst of such a seismic shift, tasked with bringing the NFL to fans.

Without Amazon Prime fans have a decision to make this fall.  (AP Photo/Doug Benck)

Without Amazon Prime fans have a decision to make this fall. (AP Photo/Doug Benck)

How will ‘TNF’ affect viewership on Amazon Prime?

The most visible effect of Amazon’s foray into NFL coverage is that one must sign up for Amazon Prime to watch out-of-market “TNF” games (in-market games are still broadcast on local airwaves). This won’t be a problem for most fans.

CEO Jeff Bezos Global Prime membership will exceed 200 million worldwide by 2021. Amazon does not disclose specific U.S. subscribers, but industry estimates put the number at between 147 million and 172 million members in recent years, a number that was at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic when many consumers opted out. Items will be delivered to their home.

In short, if you’re a soccer fan in America (or not), there’s a good chance you’re already subscribed. But there are plenty of NFL fans who don’t — for many reasons, ethical, budgetary or otherwise. Amazon raised the membership price from $119 to $139 in February. For soccer fans who don’t subscribe, that’s now the price of watching “TNF.” Is it worth it? That all depends on the individual consumer.

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For some, the price will be too much for one game a week amid the ever-increasing streaming landscape that requires sports fans to pay subscription fees on multiple platforms. Are you a UFC fan? Get an ESPN+ subscription. baseball? Sign up for Peacock. and Apple TV+. Want to see all the Premier League action? Peacock again. Now Amazon is hoping you’ll come to watch the NFL.

Can you watch ‘Thursday Night Football’ without Prime?

There is one exception that is said to be announced – bars and restaurants. They don’t have to stream to their infrastructure.

After reporting earlier this month that Amazon Direct TV had agreed to continue coverage of “TNF” at bars and restaurants, Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand reported Tuesday that an official announcement is coming soon. prove it.

So fans can hit up their favorite sports bar to catch “TNF” in the fall. For fans who don’t want to subscribe due to budget concerns, a night out with a bar/restaurant tab may not be the answer.

What to expect from ‘TNF’ distribution

This is one of the most anticipated events of the new football season. How strong is Amazon’s streaming game when it takes on America’s sports king? All signs point to a lot.

Amazon has kept Bezos in an ongoing race with Elon Musk as the world’s richest man. After paying nearly $1 billion in rights fees each year, Amazon isn’t skipping production.

Amazon secures deals with several high-profile athletes, most notably gaming icon Al Michaels, who anchors the platform’s gaming coverage. The exact terms of his deal have not been disclosed, but it is reported to be worth $15 million per year. He’ll be joined in the booth by analyst Kirk Herbstreit, who, along with his regular job with Amazon, is ESPN’s top college football voice.

"Thursday night football" Viewers will hear Al Michael's familiar voice on the call.  (AP Photo/Keith Sarkosich, File)

“Thursday Night Football” viewers will hear Al Michaels’ familiar voice on the call. (AP Photo/Keith Sarkosich, File)

The studio lineup includes broadcast headliners like Tony Gonzalez and Richard Sherman, as well as veteran NFL reporter Michael Smith and host Charissa Thompson. Fox NFL Kickoff.” (Aqib Talib was also scheduled to attend, but pulled out after his brother was shot and killed at a youth football game in Texas.)

Will the investment in talent bring more subscribers and viewers? Amazon trusts. At least that’s the company line.

“This new duo is sure to resonate with our audience and keep them watching week after week on Prime Video and Twitch,” Amazon’s head of ad sales, Danielle Carney, said in an April company statement responding to the Michael & Herbstreit acquisition.

Will the broadcast talent really make a dent in Amazon’s bottom line? That’s hard to measure. Matches and stakes determine ratings, not who’s on the mic. The real value here lies in legitimacy.

Amazon’s “TNF” coverage is the first step in what is expected to be more exclusive NFL coverage — check out the ongoing “NFL Sunday Ticket” deal. It can’t afford to offer a product that doesn’t meet NFL standards. Without quality assurance, the league would certainly not be doing business with Amazon. Expect some growing pains, but overall a premium product.

Amazon is reportedly warning of declining viewership.

A quality product is in place. In addition to the AFC West opener, an unusually attractive Thursday night slate featuring Ravens-Buccaneers, Colts-Broncos, Packers-Titans and Bills-Patriots bodes well for Amazon. But it is said to be boosting advertisers for ratings from previous seasons.

Thursday night's lineup features some intriguing matchups, starting with the Chiefs-Chargers.  (Kirby Lee/Reuters)

Thursday night’s lineup features some intriguing matchups, starting with the Chiefs-Chargers. (Kirby Lee/Reuters)

AdAge reported on Monday that Amazon has told advertisers on its recent sales platform to expect lower numbers, paying less for 30-second ad spots than Fox did on Thursday nights last season.

“Amazon has significantly reduced expectations compared to Fox,” an advertising executive told AdAge.

Meanwhile, Nielsen offers data to back up those viewership numbers with a first-of-its-kind streaming deal. Amazon and Nielsen announced Tuesday that the media data firm has reached a three-year deal to provide ratings numbers for “TNF.” It’s the first time in Nielsen’s history that the organization responsible for generating traditional TV ratings has reported on streaming numbers.

Do reduced numbers matter to Amazon?

So is this Amazon’s problem? It can’t be. Estimates of reduced viewership were almost certainly baked in before Amazon made its final bid for streaming rights. Common sense dictates that a product previously available on the airwaves and traditional cable and satellite formats won’t be easy to reach viewers on a less traditional streaming platform.

Meanwhile, Amazon’s financial structure and motivations differ from those of Fox, ESPN and NBC. Prime is a portal through which Amazon earns money in other ways. Those who tune in to watch “TNF” may stick around to watch Amazon Studios’ latest offering. You may stumble upon a third-party studio in the Prime network that generates revenue for Amazon.

The New York Times reports that streaming services like HBO Max and Starz pay Amazon 15% or more of each subscription sold through Prime. According to the Times, these deals generate more than $3 billion a year. And that’s before millions tune in to watch NFL football every week.

And now there’s been talk of Black Friday game streaming on Prime. Because what better way to get people out of the house and out of the aisles of Best Buy and Walmart on the busiest shopping day of the year?

Meanwhile, in the age of streaming and DVR, live sports are the ultimate must-see commercial live TV. Sports fans mostly want to watch the games as they happen, even if they are conditioned to sit through commercials and skip elsewhere. And a bad day in the NFL ratings office is still better than any other broadcast’s best day.

According to Sports Business Journal, 95 of the 100 highest-rated TV programs in 2021 were sports games. 75 of those were NFL games. According to the report, the NFL claimed 15 of the top 16-rated broadcasts and 29 of the top 31 broadcasts in 2021. President Joe Biden’s inauguration came in as the seventh-most-watched program of the year, while his address to Congress in April ranked 17th. Football is king and a great opportunity for Amazon.

It all adds up to the inevitable. Amazon’s NFL streaming deal isn’t easy. It’s in the future. Traditional broadcasts are not going away. But the streaming space, backed by deep pockets like Amazon and Apple, is an entrenched and growing landscape of sports and the NFL.

It depends on consumers’ priorities and how much they are willing to pay.

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