The US inflation rate is rising again in Fed tests


The dizzying pace of rising consumer prices in the United States, seen since the beginning of the year, accelerated in June in a challenge for the Federal Reserve case according to which the burst of inflationary pressures that accompanied the reopening economic will be temporary.

The consumer price index rose last month at the fastest pace since August 2008, 5.4% more than the previous year. This is far above the There was a 5% rise in May and the 4.9% increase forecast by economists.

On a monthly basis, data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed price gains of 0.9%, the biggest jump in a month since June 2008.

Eliminating volatile items such as food and energy, the “core” CPI rose from 3.8% in May compared to the previous year to 4.5% in June.

Investors, economists and policymakers have analyzed incoming inflation figures amid a fierce debate over the risk of runaway consumer prices fueled by an ultra-accommodative fiscal and monetary policy.

Price jumps have so far been the most significant for sectors directly affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Travel-related expenses, such as airfare, have risen, while a semiconductor shortage has contributed to a jump in used car prices.

One-third of the CPI rise last month stemmed from a record jump previously owned vehicle prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which appreciated 10.5% in June over the previous month.

The US central bank has long characterized high inflation impressions as “transient”, which will fade as Covid-19 blockages are reduced and supply recovers with accumulated demand. The Joe Biden administration shares this view and a White House official expressed confidence that inflationary pressures will soon subside.

Market measures of inflation expectations also reflect declining concerns about runaway consumer prices, with long-standing metrics that are below their short-term counterparties. But some investors warn that higher inflation may persist for longer than many anticipate.

“Most of the increase in monthly metrics still seems to be related to massive demand and supply imbalances in categories that‘ closed ’in 2020: used cars, hotel rooms, travel costs, etc.,” he said. say Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “Supply will eventually return to normal in these categories, but it may take longer than common sense suggests, meaning that somewhat high inflation impressions could last until 2022.”

U.S. government bonds reduced recent gains after Tuesday’s launch, generating returns above recent lows seen since the Fed’s monetary policy meeting in June, which raised the perspective of a faster-than-expected accommodation withdrawal.

The benchmark ten-year note traded 0.02 percentage points higher before settling around 1.38%.


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