[ad_1]
The latest challenge for spies and analysts studying North Korea is to accurately assess the health of Kim Jong Un, the 37-year-old secret state leader.
Kim appeared on state television in recent weeks after a long absence and looked noticeably thinner. This sparked a frenzy of speculation among North Korean observers, from Seoul to Washington. If the country’s leader suddenly falls ill, it could start a power struggle for control of an arsenal of nuclear and chemical weapons.
The episode exposed the ramifications of a leadership contest in Pyongyang and the deteriorating understanding of North Korea by intelligence agencies during the Coronavirus pandemic, which has been added to the secrecy surrounding the country.
Kim’s health is “the biggest wildcard” for assessing stability in North Korea, said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst who briefed former U.S. Presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama on Korea of the North and is now a senior member of the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies. “And if it doesn’t have any kind of succession plan, it’s a high-impact scenario. . . the interest is extremely high. ”
Kim succeeded his father Kim Jong Il as leader in 2011 and is known to have a penchant for alcohol and cigarettes. The Kim family also has a history of diabetes and heart disease and foreign governments have long been looking for clues about their health. No one knew if Kim’s diminished appearance indicated a healthy or disastrous change, Terry said.
The recent uncertainty marks a radical change from 2018 to 2019, when Kim began a series of summits abroad, meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian leader Vladimir Putin and then-President Donald Trump. He wave of diplomacy gave unprecedented opportunities for spies to see him.
At that time, it was estimated that the 1.75-meter-tall Kim weighed about 136 kg, according to biography of the North Korean leader by Anna Fifield, a former Financial Times journalist. He was classified as severely obese.
Kim Jong Un, right, with then-President Donald Trump in the demilitarized zone of Panmunjom, South Korea, in 2019 © REUTERS
But there were limits to the ability of spies to get more data even on those trips. The leader’s state of health is so closely guarded that when he travels abroad he uses a special toilet so that foreign agents cannot collect samples, Fifield noted.
The pandemic has exacerbated the challenge of determining Kim’s health status and raised more questions. North Korea tightened travel and trade in January 2020 and a large number of foreign diplomats and humanitarian workers based in Pyongyang have left the country.
The number of international exchanges with North Korea fell from 398 in 2018, including more than 200 diplomatic exchanges, to just two last year and by 2021, according to NK Pro, an information service focused on North Korea .
“It simply came to our notice then. It’s actually worse. . . There is no one coming in and out. Now it’s even more closed than usual, “said Terry.
Border controls and the repression of domestic travel have it mistreated the economy and caused food security issues. This week, Kim warned of a “serious incident” related to the pandemic and ordered a remodeling of the main cadres.
“Kim probably fears that her opponents will try to exploit them as opportunities to weaken their power or, worse, as a maneuver for regime change,” said Soo Kim, an analyst at Rand Corporation think tank and former analyst. of the CIA, who added that he might be concerned that any adverse changes in his health could point to weakness in the outside world.
Analysts are also trying to establish what the domestic handling of Kim’s physical transformation means.
North Koreans were said to be concerned that their weight loss was a sign of the leader’s suffering, according to a report published in state media.
Rachel Lee, a former U.S. government analyst and propaganda expert in Pyongyang, said that after the North Koreans began talking about the leader’s appearance, the authorities “decided to indirectly recognize and use it. to highlight Kim’s sacrifice and hard work for the people ”.
Lee added that this reflected a shift in leadership style, economic management and propaganda under Kim, with a marked increase in transparency and public engagement. He noted several occasions when state television had shown Kim cushioning or walking with a cane, and her public acknowledgment of the flaws of politics.
“While in the past, North Korea was reluctant to acknowledge or address issues publicly, under Kim Jong Un, it has tended to recognize them and address them publicly, frontally,” he said.
Some analysts warned not to misread North Korea. “It can… Send a false alarm to policy makers, which can lead to decisions that are irreversible or that harm our interests,” said Soo Kim of Rand.
An image released by state media this week that clouded the image of Kim’s health showed a pack of cigarettes and an ashtray on the leader’s desk. The image will also have been a blow to Kim Sol’s wife, Ri Sol Ju, who in 2018 complained to South Korean envoys that she “couldn’t get her to quit,” according to Fifield.
[ad_2]
Source link
