Energy groups must stop new oil and gas projects to reach zero net by 2050, according to the IEA

Energy groups must stop all new oil and gas exploration projects this year if global warming is to be controlled, the International Energy Agency said.

The proposal is one of the radical scenarios described in a report on ways to achieve net carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 in order to achieve the goal of the Paris agreement to keep temperatures no higher than 1.5 ° C above pre-industrial levels.

Apart from drastically reducing the consumption of fossil fuels, it would also require an unprecedented jump in spending on low-carbon technologies: around 530 million euros in annual energy investments in 2030, above the current 2 million euros , according to the report.

“We need a historic increase in investment,” Fatih Birol, head of the Paris-based IEA, said on Tuesday, adding that this would add 0.4% annually to GDP growth. “Most of it has to be on clean energy.”

The IEA Net Zero Report comes as the institution founded in 1974 as the oil watchdog for Western countries has faced pressure from climate activists to produce a roadmap towards the goal.

It details a review of energy supply and demand whereby coal demand would fall by 90%, gas demand would halve and oil demand would fall by about 75% by 2050.

Dave Jones, an analyst at climate think group Ember, said the report’s call to stop new oil and gas exploration was extremely surprising given the agency’s history.

“I don’t think anyone expected it from the IEA. It’s a big change for him, “he said.” It’s been very pro-fossil, so going out with something like that is amazing…. That’s really a knife in the fossil fuel industry. “

Most of the world economy is subject to some net zero emissions target, which means eliminating virtually all carbon dioxide emissions and offsetting the rest through carbon sequestration programs.

While the report is neither a forecast nor a recommendation, IEA scenarios are considered definitive by many governments and often form the basis of energy policy.

As more governments, including the UK, EU and China, commit to reducing emissions to zero, the IEA report explains the challenge of getting there. “It’s a narrow road,” Birol said. “But it can still be achieved.”

Many large oil companies and producing countries, such as Opec, have long argued that investment in new fossil fuel projects must continue to meet the needs of emerging economies in Asia and Africa.

However, the modeled reduction in IEA fossil fuel consumption is much more severe than most producers have prepared. The proportion of fossil fuels in the world’s energy supply should drop from the current four-fifths to one-fifth by 2050. Solar energy would become the largest source of energy, ie 20%. of global energy demand.

“Those countries whose economies depend on oil and gas revenues will face major challenges,” Birol said. “We came up with more than 400 milestones, and one of them is: there is no need for new oil, gas and coal developments, which do not include investments in oil and gas exploration.”

However, the IEA acknowledged that “continued investment in existing sources of oil production is needed.”

Although oil demand is declining, the share of oil production controlled by Opec will increase, from 37% to 52% by 2050, according to the report.

It predicts carbon-free electricity globally by 2040, along with increased research funding over the next decade for new technologies such as hydrogen batteries and electrolyzers.

Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate change at Imperial College, considered the IEA’s zero net scenario to be very significant.

Improvements in energy efficiency mean that global energy demand in 2050 will be about 8% lower than today, although the world economy will be double that. Electricity consumption will grow, accounting for about half of total energy consumption by 2050.

“The IEA is used as a de facto benchmark for much of the planning, by both governments and industry,” said Rogelj, who had called on the IEA to develop a clean zero scenario.

Previous IEA scenarios had been heavily criticized for not including enough renewable energy and underestimating the growth rate of the world of solar and wind energy.

“If you look back over the last decade, IEA scenarios have always lagged a bit behind,” Rogelj said. “The IEA is simply a slow, gray, rusty and dusty machine, and it only takes a while. . . but I am very pleased to see that the IEA has now reached a zero clear path. “

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