Where have all the workers gone and will they never return?

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When a young Manchester restaurant announced a receptionist in July last year, it was surprised to receive 963 requests in one day, not the thirty or so it expected.

It was then. “It’s very, very different now,” says Carol Cairnes, people director of restaurant owner D&D London. Its forty restaurants receive an average of one-tenth of the applicants they had last July, on average, and some roles are proving to be seriously difficult to fill.

“Our chefs’ ads typically attract about 50 candidates; today we are lucky if we have five, “he says, adding that of those five, only one or two were properly qualified.

Welcome to one of Covid’s most curious news: a wave of labor shortages in rich countries even though millions are still unemployed.

As economists debate the causes and consequences of the phenomenon, as well as how long it will last, the rest of us can only marvel at how abruptly things have changed.

One of the visible signs of change is an assortment of baits, bonuses and benefits that would have seemed absurd a few months ago when workers faced a Covid bloodbath.

The sunny Australian state of Queensland has just launched a “work in paradise” campaign that offers $ 1,500 (£ 820) in cash plus subsidized travel to lure workers to a tourism sector hit by labor shortages.

In the United States, Amazon offers $ 1,500 login bonuses (plus $ 100 more if it can be shown to be vaccinated) and McDonald’s has joined a number of large American groups wage increases for staff.

In London, a restaurant on the corner of my office offers guests £ 100 gift vouchers if they can recommend a new rental. Another nearby restaurant offers its staff a bonus of up to £ 2,000 if you can do the same.

Recruiters even have difficulty hiring recruiters. The competition for the best applicants is “now green,” says Neil Carberry, executive director of the UK’s Recruitment and Employment Confederation. “I’ve never seen a market for experienced hiring consultants like this,” he said last week.

Why is this happening now? One factor: the strong economic recovery in some places is driving demand from companies that reopen at the same time since the closures. “Everyone is recruiting at the same time,” says Tony Wilson, director of the research group at the UK Institute for Labor Studies. “That’s very, very unusual.”

Could furlough schemes and pandemic documents encourage workers to flee? Experts disagree, but it is clear that in sectors such as hospitality, people have left the industry to go to nursing homes, supermarkets and other places with friendlier hours and sometimes with a you are better.

Some countries have added pressures that could exacerbate scarcity.

There has been an exodus of EU truck drivers since Brexit in the UK, where many industries are heavily dependent on workers across the Channel. Before the UK left the EU in 2020, 72% of the staff in the D&D London restaurant group came from the EU, while 6% came from other countries and 22% were British.

It is blaming difficult border rules for labor shortages in Australia and also in New Zealand, where there is a group of dairy farmers warned this month that the stress of labor shortages was so heartbreaking that it could lead to the loss “of both human and animal lives.”

For smaller companies, the struggle to find staff has been especially intense.

“It’s scary,” says Nick Ward, a Brighton chef in the UK who has been so desperate to find workers that he has resorted to paying friends to help him on busy days. He is far from alone. Moments after we spoke last week, he sent an urgent text from a catering contact to ask if Ward could come and work for him that day, which he couldn’t.

It is possible to feel great sympathy for those in Ward’s position and at the same time be pleased to see that people who work unsociable and unpredictable hours with low wages finally gain dominance. As Tony Wilson of IES says, some industries have been enjoying a buyer market for the top 15 years. “There has been a shift in the balance of power,” he says. It may be temporary, but as long as it lasts, employers have no choice but to adjust.

pilita.clark@ft.com

Twitter: @pilitaclark



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