Uh oh, Wall Street is suddenly buzzing about big tech.

I don’t think people are as weak as May. I don’t think they are as aggressive as they were in June. And of course I don’t think the backlash in the last few days has made people more complacent. But I have a feeling people will be very excited, very bullish, if mega-cap tech stocks rally on Wednesday.

I can already hear it, building excitement. You know what it sounds like: Microsoft (MSFT) says things aren’t getting any worse! Google said things weren’t as bad as everyone thought. It’s just a currency windfall, not a business slowdown! And stocks are collected. And people are starting to talk as if their hatred for tech stocks a few weeks ago didn’t actually happen. They didn’t really mean it, it was just a little tiff, a little skirmish with their favorite tech stocks.

And again this leads to crying from below.

They may not even care about the feds because their beloved technology is doing so well. If my scenario is correct, however, we should get another rally to my oscillator’s next overbought reading. If we can get my notes to pop up here, we’ll go back to Friday/Monday’s purchased reading.

But let’s take a step back and look at the S&P chart and how this particular rally looks different from the rallies in 2022. The January rally lasted a few days (green arrow). The march lasted about 3 weeks at most (blue arrow). The May procession lasted a week or two (red arrow).

But the recent rally was not straight. The final step is step by step. And that makes this lineup different. It has been more than a month. Business people hate this kind of behavior because they think they’re whipping you up and down, but I think it’s made the general public more complacent.

Investors (as opposed to traders) feel good when the trend is up. Investors feel good when upward moves last more than a few days or a week, when they can pull back and see higher lows on a chart. It gives them a sense of security.

If we look at the McLellan summary index, we can see the higher lows that I wrote about a month ago, and now it is aggressively trying to find itself above the zero line for the first time in 2022.

So, if the Fed doesn’t hold the market on Wednesday, I fully expect to see a big shift in sentiment heading into the weekend.