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Shortly after Tigray People’s Liberation Leader marched Ethiopian federal prisoners of war through the streets of Mekelle this weekend, he demanded that all troops sympathetic to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed withdraw from the province before agreeing to the ceasefire. the fire.
It was just the latest sign that Abiy’s unilateral ceasefire, which the TPLF has called a “joke,” could be ineffective in stopping fighting that killed thousands, displaced 1.7 million and plunged more. of 400,000 people. similar to hunger conditions.
The Ethiopian government had urged Tigrayan rebels to join the June 28 ceasefire, which it says would help aid agencies reach hundreds of thousands of people with relief supplies. The call to the ceasefire was made as TPLF recovered Mekelle, the regional capital, a week ago.
The TPLF demands that Addis Ababa first withdraw all its troops and allies from the northern region. He has also called for an independent investigation into alleged atrocities by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops and the reinstatement of the TPLF government in Tigray.
Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, is accused of persecuting one conflict that has triggered rape, massacre i supposed ethnic cleansing, and has led Washington to impose sanctions on several Ethiopian officials.
“We are determined and we must shed blood to ensure our survival as people,” the TPLF said, adding that Abiy Ahmed’s “fascist clique is really trying to deceive the international community into thinking it is a peace officer ”.
Addis Ababa has repeatedly declared victory in a war that Abiy claimed would take only weeks, but that lasted eight months and reached neighboring Eritrea. The TPLF took ten days to regain control of Mekelle of the Ethiopian forces, who took him last November.
Since then, many have questioned the ceasefire as a ploy to allow Abiy to regroup and rearm his forces. “This federal government’s‘ humanitarian ’ceasefire doesn’t seem sincere,” said William Davison, Ethiopia’s senior analyst at Crisis Group.
“It simply came to our notice then. . . increase, given the blatant federal obstacle to humanitarian operations. . . a rising TDF will not passively allow the federal government to try to restrict the region again ”.
Indeed, Addis Ababa has cordoned off the region. According to the UN, Tigray is now suffering from a blackout in telecommunications and electricity and a shortage of cash and fuel that “will only aggravate the already dire humanitarian situation.”
Mekelle’s recovery from the TPLF and Addis Ababa’s stance also disprove what both the U.S. Department of State and the EU have called the necessary conditions for an effective ceasefire.
He WE he said the ceasefire “could be a positive step if it entails changes on the ground to end the conflict, stop atrocities and allow unhindered humanitarian assistance.” The EU does stressed out that “to be credible, it should materialize quickly and be accompanied by additional efforts by all parties to end the conflict.”
But on Wednesday Ethiopia’s lieutenant general Bacha Debele warned: “If they [the rebels] provoke us, today we can return to Mekelle ”. In a sign that fighting is continuing, two bridges have been blown up from the ceasefire, further complicating relief efforts. Each party has accused the other of liability.
The TPLF has pledged to deliver Tigray from all Ethiopian federal soldiers and Allied fighters in Amhara and Eritrea and, if necessary, will march on the Eritrean capital, Asmara. Before agreeing to a ceasefire, the TPLF also wants both Abiy and Eritrean strong leader Isaias Afwerki to be held accountable for the crimes allegedly committed against the Tigris.
TPLF officials claim to have more than 9,000 Ethiopian prisoners of war and say their priority now is to push all opposing forces in the western Tigray so that they can establish a supply corridor with neighboring Sudan. They claim to have up to 30,000 troops waiting there to join the fight.
“Militarily, there is no problem when it comes to taking on Western Tigray,” a TPLF official told the Financial Times. “The goal now is to try to open the corridor with Sudan.”
Sudanese officials have said their country has no interest in taking part in a war in Ethiopia. However, since the end of last year there have been skirmishes between Sudanese and Ethiopian forces over farmland on the border.
Relations between Khartoum and Addis Ababa have also been strained by the giant dam that Ethiopia has built on the Nile, which Sudan fears could give Ethiopia control over vital river water supplies.
The Tigrayans have a long history of fighting: first in a 1940s rebellion against Emperor Haile Selassie, then in a guerrilla war against the Derg regime that led the Tigrayans to rule Ethiopia from 1991 onwards. having gone to Addis Ababa.
Today, some members of the TPLF claim that the conflict, which began last November after Abiy sent troops in response to alleged attacks on federal forces, is turning into a struggle for Tigrayan’s independence from Ethiopia.
“The war has not stopped,” one said. “Maybe the gun barrel has stopped, for now and in some areas.”
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