The growing trend of cruise sales by travel agents may turn to direct bookings.

March’s booking report and comments from cruise executives indicate Trip Advisor’s cruise bookings are on the rise.

According to the US Cruise Market Report 2022-2026 released by FocusWright, the rate of cruise bookings by travel agents dropped from 70% in 2021 to 52% in 2019.

But forecasts suggest that the threat of increased direct bookings may be relatively short-lived, with travel advisors’ share forecast to return to 2019 levels by 2025 and grow to 71 percent by 2026.

“Cruise has been hit hard and is coming back very strong,” said Michael Colletta, FocusWright’s research and innovation manager and author of the report. “As those itineraries get longer and more complex, it’s not really a product that’s well-suited to booking online.”

The pandemic has led to an increase in direct shipping sales. According to the report, 21% of bookings in 2019 came from direct sales through call centers (11%) or supplier websites (9%). But in the year By 2022, the share of bookings from call centers will almost double, and direct online bookings will rise, reaching a 35% share of the total cruise total.

That change comes because itineraries are shorter and more domestically inclined during the cruise relaunch, making it easier for guests to book directly, Collette said. Meanwhile, travel agents still operating were processing cancellations and applying future cruise credits to rebookings, which negatively impacted new bookings.

Now, Colletta sees evidence from a FocusWright report, which examines economic indicators, consumer research and interviews with industry executives, that the share of holdings is changing.

The cost of live subscriptions

Carnival Corp. CEO Josh Weinstein said during a first-quarter earnings call last month that travel agent bookings for several of the company’s brands exceeded 2019 levels. Weinstein and other shipping executives acknowledged the increase in direct sales, but continued to reiterate their reliance on the business.

Weinstein said on the call that the advisors’ booking volumes for the Wave season were “spectacular” and the recovery of the business was “phenomenal.”

In the interview, “I don’t want to pretend that we don’t have direct business. “Of course, we do. But we will only be successful if all our sales channels are successful. Really. and I. Think the business has done an amazing job for this industry.

That’s especially true given how much growth there is for cruise lines. Colletta said the lines will need help filling berths in the coming years, taking on 75 ships over the next five years.

Wall Street analysts are mixed on prices of direct holdings versus advisors.

According to Trust Securities, Carnival Corp. said it would be more acceptable for guests to book a $250 cruise with one of their cruise line representatives. Operating expenses such as the Philippines.

In contrast, “travel agents are cheaper than running a call center,” says Asia Georgieva, a longtime cruise analyst and principal at Infinity Research. But she also predicts the direct booking channel’s strong position on the line and will hold up well beyond 2026, when the tech-savvy Generation Z grows into a larger share of cruise customers.

Travel agents report strong sales

Travel agents say they are confident of recovering a large share of total bookings.

Robin Sanchez, president of Montecito Village Travel, said that even though agents told customers to meet early during the outbreak, some advisors took a break.

“They took advantage of it a little bit,” Sanchez said. That led to clients being lured by other advisers or working directly with cruise lines, she said.

But it is seeing a strong recovery in 2023. The company reported $49 million in cruise sales this year, compared to $44 million for all of 2019. Her staff is back to full strength after hiring all of her staff. As of 2020, more than 100 independent contractors have been added.

Michelle Fee, founder and CEO of Cruise Planners, said business is strong this year and overall cruise bookings for 2023 are 25% of the full year of 2019. She said not to worry about the recent addition of direct business to cruise lines.

“There’s a lot of travel there, and a lot of opportunity,” she said. “Obviously we’d love for everything to go through the travel agent channel, but for me it doesn’t stop our business.”

*This story originally appeared in Travel Weekly.