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Delayed monsoon rains threaten India’s vast agricultural sector and jeopardize the recovery of a spreading economy from the coronavirus pandemic.
Farmers in the fertile northern and central states, such as the Punjab, Haryana and parts of Madhya Pradesh, are anxiously awaiting rain after the halt of the monsoon’s rise in the Indian subcontinent.
“Crops are like in a hospital ventilator due to lack of monsoon,” said Kedar Sirohi, leader of the Aam Kisan Union, or Union of Common Farmers, in Madhya Pradesh.
He said farmers in his state, where irrigation facilities are limited, had planted their soybean, cotton, sorghum and legume crops nearly three weeks ago, but their seedlings faded. “We need a good rain in four or five days, or we will lose 30 to 40 percent of our production,” he added.
Half of India’s population of 1.4 billion depends on agriculture, which makes the monsoon vital not only for its livelihood but also for the economy as a whole. The initial predictions of a good rainy season, which runs from June to September, were a rare bright spot in a country suffering from a second calamitous wave of the pandemic.
After the economy contracted by 7.3% in 2020, the IMF projected in April that it would expand by 12.5% this year. But the forecasts have been abruptly reduced since the recent rise of Covid.
Although some parts of the country have received adequate or even heavy rainfall, the strips of central and northern India have remained dry. Punjab, one of the main producers of rice and other commodities in the country, has received little or no rainfall.
India’s weather department predicts rains in these regions will fall soon. But Giriraj Amarnath, a researcher at the International Institute of Water Management, said more delays would result in lower crop yields.
“This will definitely affect the economy,” he said. “Production, prices and export of these crops. . . from there it will go through the value chain ”.
The monsoon supplies more than two-thirds of India’s rainfall. Less than 40% of India’s agricultural land has been irrigated since 2015, the latest data available, according to the World Bank, leaving the rest dependent solely on rain.
“It is a time of anguish for farmers,” admitted Ajay Vir Jakhar, chairman of the Bharat Krishak Samaj, or Indian Farmers Forum. He estimated that the monsoon was between a week and ten days late.
“Irrigation water cannot fully compensate for rainwater,” he said, adding that farmers would probably plant fewer crops.
“You need soil and air moisture. It’s a whole ecosystem. When water falls from the sky, it helps plants differently than when water comes from the ground.
Scientists warn that climate change is destabilizing the monsoon, with serious consequences for the hundreds of millions of people who depend on it. Research by the Indian government shows that extreme events such as heavy rains and floods, as well as droughts, are on the rise.
This makes South Asia “extremely vulnerable compared to other parts of the world,” Avantika Goswami told the Nonprofit Science and Environment Center.
A good monsoon season last year was vital in India to survive the historical economic contraction which was followed by a strict blockade of several months.
A generous harvest provided employment to returning immigrants who had lost their jobs in the cities and caused the consumption of everything. motorcycles to consumer goods.
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