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After most of the country’s business economists said the economy would remain remarkably resilient despite high interest rates, they expect the U.S. recession to begin later this year than previously predicted.
Of the 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association of Business Economics, 58 percent expect a recession at some point this year. But only a quarter think the recession will start by the end of March, just half of who thought so in December.
The findings reflect research by economists from businesses, trade associations and academia and were released Monday.
A third of economists who responded to the survey expect a recession to begin in the April-June quarter. A fifth is expected to start in the July-September quarter.
Economists are pessimistic about when the recession will begin The government reports show the economy is still strong despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates eight times in a desperate effort to slow growth and curb high inflation. .
In January, employers added more than half a million jobs, and the unemployment rate reached 3.4 percent, the lowest level since 1969.
And sales at retail stores and restaurants rose 3 percent in January, the biggest monthly gain in two years. That generally suggests that consumers, who are driving much of the economic growth, still feel financially healthy and willing to spend.
At the same time, several government releases showed inflation rebounded in January after several months of weakness, raising concerns that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate more than previously expected. When the Fed raises its key rate, it leads to higher mortgages, car loans and credit card borrowing. Interest rates on business loans also increase.
Tight credit can weaken the economy and even lead to bankruptcy. An economic survey released on Friday found that the Fed could not cut from its recent high rate of inflation without triggering a recession.
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