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Veteran Democrat Terry McAuliffe will face Carlyle’s former Republican executive Glenn Youngkin in this year’s Virginia government election, a contest that will be seen as the protagonist of the U.S. political climate in less than a year of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Only two governorates, Virginia and New Jersey, will be on the verge of November. While Democratic President Phil Murphy is expected to be re-elected in New Jersey, analysts said the Virginia contest was a “launch” that would attract significant national interest.
“This is this year’s marquee race,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Policy Center, noting that the governors’ races in the state, which are held a year after the presidential elections, have historically been seen as a referendum on the White House party.
This year’s contest will be seen as a major first election test for Biden and the Democrats in charge next year’s midterm elections, when the control of both houses of Congress and dozens of governments will be controversial. It will also represent an opportunity for Republicans to regain the support of moderate voters who have left the party out of disgust for Donald Trump.
McAuliffe, who served as governor of Virginia from 2014 to 2018, won the statewide Democratic primary to become his party’s candidate on Tuesday, leading a field of five candidates. Democratic incumbent Ralph Northam cannot run for re-election under state laws that prohibit incumbents from serving consecutive terms.
McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and longtime ally of Bill and Hillary Clinton, will now be contested against Youngkin in the November election.
Youngkin, who has never held office, left Carlyle last year after 25 years at the private equity firm and launched his candidacy to govern in January. He won the Republican Party nomination after a convention last month and garnered the support of Trump, who said Youngkin “knows how to make Virginia’s economy crumble.”
It has a net worth of approximately $ 300 million and its campaign last week announced that it had raised nearly $ 16 million to date from donors, although it ended up with the nearly $ 15 million it earned. McAuliffe.
But Youngkin faces a tough battle to win in Virginia, a state where Democrats have made significant gains in recent years, driven largely by the support of former Republicans and independent voters in suburban areas. In November, Biden became the first Democrat to do so win in Virginia by more than 10 points from Franklin D Roosevelt in 1944.
Analysts said Youngkin should strike a delicate balance to regain moderate Republicans as long as he does not alienate the Conservative Trump support base if he is to succeed in November.
However, history may be on his side, as Virginia has in recent decades tended to elect a party governor who is not in the White House, with one exception in McAuliffe’s victory in 2013, a year after re-election. of Barack Obama as President of the United States. .
“[Virginia] it is sometimes seen as one of the first tests of the new presidential administration, “Kondik said, adding:” It is a test, frankly, the administration often fails, because there is a long history of state voting. against the White House. “
Swamp notes
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