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Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine, while primarily a humanitarian disaster, has caused widespread economic damage worldwide, not least in travel and tourism. Between them, Russian and Ukrainian tourists usually spend about 45 billion US dollars on trips abroad, most of them in developing European countries.
The Covid-19 outbreak has barely abated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, posing yet another challenge to the travel and tourism sector across emerging Europe.
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, the war will affect Europe’s tourism industry in four ways: the loss of Russian and Ukrainian tourists; restrictions on the use of airways and airspace; High food and fuel costs; And a big hit for traveler confidence and disposable income.
The loss of Russian and Ukrainian tourists, who spent $45 billion a year before the Covid-19 pandemic (about eight percent of the global total), will affect many countries in developing Europe.
However, some regional experts see the positive side of reducing dependence on Russian tourism.
Loss of Baltic tourists?
As more and more countries in the Schengen area choose to stop issuing tourist visas to Russian passport holders, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could also lose 10 percent or more of their visitors due to an effective ban on Russian travelers.
The war in Ukraine came at a time when we were all recovering from the impact of the last two years and tourism numbers were not yet at pre-Covid levels, Kadri Groen said. Travel Estonia speaks Emerging Europe.
She pointed out that as a direct effect of the war, the number of ships loading in Tallinn had dropped by 50 percent. She said this was not the result of fear, but rather the fact that they could no longer visit St. Petersburg, a key attraction for Baltic Sea cruises.
Nevertheless, she is optimistic about the future of Estonia’s tourism industry.
“We have heard that the impact of the war is the reason for canceling group trips, but we have not seen the war directly in the tourism statistics. Every month, the number of passengers has gradually improved,” she said.
As for the cruise ships, she says that the ships coming to Tallinn will stay longer than before. Also, more cruise ships visited other ports than in previous years, such as Estonia’s largest island, Saaremaa.
It is the same situation in Latvia.
“The covid-19 epidemic and the war in Ukraine have affected the tourism sector and reduced the number of travelers from North America, Asia, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine,” said Janis Kovalevsky of the Investment and Development Agency of Latvia. Emerging Europe.
“The war in Ukraine has had an immediate impact on spring and summer bookings, especially for group bookings. A large number of group bookings were canceled in March and were not rebooked for the summer season. According to estimates from the tourism sector, around 60 to 70 per cent of bookings have been cancelled. Currently Income tourism is mainly based on individual travelers and small tourist groups, as well as domestic travel and domestic and regional corporate travel.
She stated that Latvia’s tourism marketing strategy has been revised to redefine priority markets and products in close cooperation with industry stakeholders to improve its impact.
“Due to the geopolitical situation, a large part of our tourism marketing budget went into campaigns on our target markets in Scandinavia and Western Europe. Most tourists come from Lithuania, Estonia, Sweden, Finland, Germany and other European countries,” said Kovalevsky.
Extinction by Balkan tourists?
Montenegro, which has attracted wealthy Russians to exclusive beach resorts and cruises, is predicted to see a sharp drop in tourism-related income, although some Russians are still entering the country via Serbia. Belgrade is one of the few European airports still open for flights from Russia.
In May, the World Bank cut its 2022 economic growth forecast for Montenegro to 3.6 percent from the previous 5.9 percent, partly due to an expected drop in high-spending tourists.
“Russia and Ukraine represent one of the most important tourist destinations for Montenegro in the past few years, as both are among the top five countries with the largest number of tourists. Before the war, tourists from Russia and Ukraine accounted for 15.8 percent of foreign visitors and 21 percent of overnight stays in the country. They were in between,” said Milena Vujovic of the National Tourism Organization of Montenegro. Emerging Europe.
She says that the country’s tourism industry has undergone major changes due to the crisis, and Bas still managed to have a successful tourist season attracting tourists from the region, Western Europe, but also from Israel, Kazakhstan, as well as some new Montenegrin markets such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
“According to our data on the number of tourists since the beginning of this year, we are recording an average growth of 9.91 percent compared to the same period in 2019 before the pandemic,” says Vujovic.
Bulgaria’s Black Sea is another major tourist destination for Russian and Ukrainian tourists, and Deutsche Welle Bulgaria estimates that more than 350,000 Russians own beach property in the country.
“In our country, the war has had a negative impact on tourism. In January, we recorded a lot of bookings for the first spring and summer season. At the same time, we were also having a very satisfactory winter tourism season. In February, conflicts started in Ukraine and this affected all sales. It has stopped,” said Pavlina Ilieva, chairwoman of the Future Tourism Organization, which provides independent representation of the Bulgarian tourism industry. Emerging Europe.
A coordinated plan to boost tourism and help some of the 297,000 Ukrainian refugees who passed through Bulgaria by the end of May includes a 20-euro fee for food and accommodation at hotels hosting more than 40,000 refugees a day at seaside resorts.
However, according to Iliva, the lack of clarity on when the plan will end has made it difficult for participants to book.
Tourists should not be afraid
Liva also says that some tourists are confused about where Bulgaria is, which contributes to the low number of beach visitors.
Some tourists are under the misconception that Bulgaria shares a border with Ukraine, which has led to cancellations from Western markets.
Some Bulgarian travel agencies report receiving calls from Western countries with long-time clients asking if Russia’s crackdown on Ukraine can be heard from Bulgaria.
Kadri Gron is gone Travel Estonia is at pains to point out that there is currently no military threat to Estonia.
“The distance from Tallinn to Kyiv is the same as from Berlin or Vienna. “Although we share a border with Russia, we are a proud Northern European country, a member of the European Union and NATO, and 80 kilometers from the Gulf of Helsinki,” she said.
Bulgaria, Estonia and all Eastern European Union member states in between have the lowest (level 1) travel warning status issued by the US State Department.
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