Holiday travel is expected to decline slightly from 2021, as diesel prices continue to decline.

Morganton, W.Va. – According to a report from AAA, an estimated 113 million people will travel more than 50 miles for pleasure by the end of the year.

According to Patrick de Haan, senior petroleum analyst at Gasbuddy.com, commuting on Christmas will be $3.35 cheaper per gallon than last year.

“The price dropped 10-cents a gallon statewide last week, the average is now $3.23,” De Haan said. That’s what we’re seeing as gas prices from coast to coast continue to drop and the national average is $3.19 a gallon.

For 2022, screening usage started at about 89%, but usage has now jumped to the 93% range. Additionally, increased oil supply on the open market continues to depress the price per barrel.

“After the refineries finished the maintenance season, they pumped more oil into the refineries and boosted utilization,” de Haan said. “This has helped gasoline supplies jump significantly.”

The recent 2 million barrel per day production cut by 23 oil-producing nations, including OPEC+, was not added. A report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected domestic commercial crude supplies to fall to 14 million barrels by November 2021.

“It was surprising that OPEC+ did not cut production,” de Haan said. They did in November, but they extended those cuts into December, but they didn’t increase the cuts and I think that’s what gave oil prices a lot of ammunition.

Historically, diesel inventories are lower in the spring and fall due to increased agricultural activity, but this fall production increased as supplies fell to their lowest level since 1982. De Haan said that if the temperature drops significantly, diesel prices will rise and the market remains at a constant price. It continues to decrease.

“Due to the relatively high price of diesel, they are producing as much as they can,” de Haan said. “We are now starting to clear some of the slack and diesel inventories increased by 6 million barrels last week alone.”

De Haan said the price of diesel fuel in West Virginia dropped from $5.71 to $5.38 on November 15. In the current market, De Haan expects diesel prices to remain low.

“There’s a really good fallout,” de Haan said. “I expect the statewide diesel average to drop below $5. In fact, it should drop below $4.50 and may even head to $4 or even $3.99 a gallon.”