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More than half of people across the UK think Scotland should be allowed a second independence referendum within five years if the Scottish National Party wins a majority in the May 6 election, according to a poll by election company Ipsos Mori.
The poll of more than 8,500 people is likely to increase pressure on British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to reconsider his refusal to allow a re-run in the 2014 referendum in which Scots rejected independence amid a 55- 45%.
The Scottish parliamentary elections on 6 May could be a crucial moment for the UK’s constitutional future, with the SNP on Thursday revealing plans for a referendum it is expected to hold up by the end of 2023. Less than a quarter of people surveyed by Ipsos Mori across the UK said they thought the UK would still exist in its current form within a decade.
Recent polls suggest the SNP is winning more than half of the 129 seats in the Scottish parliament next month, a remarkable feat given its proportionately representative voting system. Even if the SNP falls short, polls suggest there will continue to be a majority of pro-independence MSPs in the Holyrood chamber in Edinburgh.
Ipsos Mori found that 51% of people across the UK believed the SNP should be allowed to hold another independence referendum within five years of the next parliament if the party won a majority in Holyrood. It was found that 40% believed that the UK government should block this vote.
“If the Scottish National Party wins the majority of seats, as it seems likely that if current levels of support are maintained, it will be much more difficult for the British government to refuse a second referendum on independence,” Emily said. Gray, CEO of Ipsos Mori Scotland.
SNP leaders portrayed the 2014 referendum as a “once in a generation” event, but argue that increased support for independence since then and the UK’s exit from the EU (which was oppose 62% of Scottish voters) justify another vote on the constitutional question. .
Johnson has repeatedly insisted that he would not approve a second referendum, suggesting in January that it should not be allowed. until the 2050s at least.
The UK government declined to comment directly on Ipsos Mori’s findings or on how it would respond to a SNP majority, insisting instead that the people of Scotland wanted to see the UK and decentralized administrations. ” working together ”and the push for a second referendum was irresponsible.
“The UK is the most successful political and economic union the world has ever seen,” the UK government said.
Ipsos Mori’s survey of its “knowledge panel”, made up of people randomly selected to represent opinion across the UK, highlighted widespread uncertainty about the country’s constitutional future.
He found that only 24% thought the UK would exist in its current form within ten years, compared to 53% who thought it didn’t and 23% who didn’t know it. Nearly 60% of respondents thought Scotland’s independence would make the UK weaker, and 41% said it would “sadden them above all”.
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