Covid quarantines and cutting mask orders means more damage to business and health in the long run

From Friday 9 September, isolation requirements for people with Covid and no symptoms will be cut from seven days to five days. Masks are no longer required on domestic flights.

While Australian Medical Association president Steve Robson has called for the science behind the national cabinet’s decision to be released, the change shows we are now rapidly moving towards a “business-as-usual” pandemic. This political strategy requires the removal of protections or restrictions so that life and business can return to “normal”.

But life is nowhere near normal. Covid is the third most common killer of Australians, with 11,746 deaths so far this year. And there is evidence that Covid survivors are at increased risk of long-term damage to their lungs, heart, brain and immune system.

The truth is there is no going back to normal now we live with covid.

Read more: Long Covid: How researchers are working on self-targeted immune attacks that can hide behind it

Balancing risk

So what is causing these changes and what will be the impact?

First of all, there is no scientific basis for the change. We know that people vary in how long they remain contagious with Covid after testing positive.

Setting a reasonable isolation period depends on balancing the risk to the community and enabling individuals infected with Covid-19 to return to work, school and normal activities as quickly as possible. There was an agreement seven days in advance. And now the Premier of New South Wales, Dominic Perrott, has called for the exclusion to be removed entirely. Has the evidence changed in relation to this scale?

There are a number of recent studies in Omicron-era vaccinated people that have evaluated how long people have been exposed to the virus and whether they are contagious after testing positive for Covid-19. This new study shows that a significant number of people (between a third and a half) remain contagious after a five-day isolation period. Another study shows that after this time, two-thirds are contagious.

So of the 11,734 people who were reported to be Covid-positive on September 1, at least 3,900 would still be contagious on the fifth day. If released from isolation, they can infect others.

In future transmissions, this could lead to many more cases of Covid that would not have occurred if the seven-day isolation period had been maintained.

The reduction in isolation time only works for people without symptoms, it is acceptable to pass well without any symptoms. Unfortunately, our politicians equate the lack of symptoms with the inability to transmit the virus to justify the changes. Decision makers clearly need better information.

Read more: Should states reduce Covid isolation from 7 to 5 days? Here are the things to consider

But what about businesses?

Mandatory isolation creates stress on people and businesses. But with the number of Covid cases falling from the peak of the BA.4/5 wave across Australia, fewer people are now infected with the virus than at any other time this year. The pressure on individuals and businesses due to mandatory deregulation is set to hit a low for 2022.

So why the change now? Perhaps the hope is that as the number of people infected with Covid-19 has recently declined, easing our protections won’t lead to a rapid increase in cases.

With this illusion of confidence, politicians can make these changes without apparent influence. They will continue until all transmission barriers are destroyed. It’s all part of a strategy that, in the words of the NSW Premier, is “reliance on public health orders and greater reliance on mutual respect”. As if the two concepts contradict each other rather than complement each other.

Unfortunately, resurgence is common, and we will likely face another wave of outbreaks in the future, probably before the end of the year. Then systematically breaking down all existing defenses will make the next wave come sooner and affect more people.

Reduce the spread instead

Allowing large numbers of people who are still contagious to return to work is not the answer to solving the workforce disruption that Covid is still causing. This is because there will be an increase in infections in the workplace and schools as a result of the contraction. When the next wave comes, this will leave many people angry because they are sick with covid or caring for others, defeating the ultimate purpose of change.

And, as we learned with the BA.5 wave – Australia’s highest number of people infected with Covid since the outbreak began – once removed, re-introduction doesn’t happen even when medically recommended. Once protection is established, there’s no turning back—it’s a one-way street.

The best way to protect business interests and make the economy viable is to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-2) and prevent the vaccine-plus strategy as much as possible.

In countries such as England that have shortened isolation and left it altogether, its spread has worsened and its economic impact has increased.

Eliminating mask mandates on airplanes means a greater risk of your trip being disrupted by covid, as well as flight crews getting sick from exposure.

Read more: Want to reduce your risk of catching Covid on a plane? Wear a mask and avoid the commercial section

We make the workplace less safe by reducing isolation and increasing workplace diffusion. People’s rights to a safe workplace must be considered along with business continuity.

Allowing transmission to increase will affect the economy by increasing the number of people affected by long-term covid. In the UK, where we model, up to one in four employers are reporting that their productivity has been affected by prolonged Covid.

A transition to a business-as-usual pandemic leaves us unnecessarily vulnerable and ultimately disrupts business even more.

The emergence of increasingly infectious and vaccine-resistant variants of Covid, coupled with the simultaneous removal of interventions such as isolation and masking, will lead to more frequent and devastating waves of disease.

Our best chance for business continuity is not a path to disruptive business-as-usual, but a layered strategy. This includes improved immunization rates, safer indoor air, masks in public indoor settings and maintaining the current isolation period for people with Covid.

Read more: How does Omicron compare to Delta? Here’s what we know about contagion, symptoms, severity, and vaccine resistance.