Biden’s attempted steps toward Kim from North Korea were received with skepticism

Before winning the US election, North Korea dismissed Joe Biden as a “low IQ fool,” while the presidential candidate called Kim Jong Un a “thug.”

But following the announcement by the White House that it had just drafted its policy on North Korea, skepticism is being raised about whether the president will withdraw from this antagonistic stance and commit to the nuclear-armed dictator.

Few details of the plan have been announced, but many foreign policy experts believe the U.S. president has already reduced Washington’s attention to North Korea (a priority for the Donald Trump administration), as Biden tries to address national issues and focus more on China.

Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst who briefed Presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama on North Korea, believed Biden’s policy was being designed as a “celebration action, not a breakthrough.”

“The administration does not notice its proposal. He realizes that he is unlikely to “solve” the North Korean problem; it is probably trying to keep silence in North Korea so that it can focus on more urgent priorities elsewhere that are solvable, ”he said.

After completing the policy review for months, administration officials said Biden would “explore diplomacy” as part of a “practical and calibrated approach.” They have also been quick to downplay expectations, noting that the last four presidents have been unable to convince North Korea to abandon it. nuclear weapons.

“We have… A very clear policy that focuses on diplomacy… It is up to North Korea to decide whether or not it wants to participate on that basis,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday.

The review followed a turbulent period in the US-North Korea ties. After an escalation in animosity and gun testing, Trump broke protocol and met with the North Korean leader three times. As tensions eased, Trump has not been achieved a long-term agreement.

But Biden has been quick to distance himself from Trump and Obama, whom he and much of his foreign policy team served for eight years.

“Our policy will not focus on getting big business, nor will it be based on ‘strategic patience,'” said Jen Psaki, a White House press secretary, referring to the Trump theatrical meeting and the years of Obama’s inaction on North Korea.

Pyongyang on Sunday criticized Biden’s intention to continue applying. . . hostile policy ”and warned that“ over time, the US will find itself in a very serious situation ”.

Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst in North Korea, now in the Rand Corporation pension group, hoped Kim’s regime would do the same. resume military provocations. “There is little that keeps Pyongyang from security,” he said.

Last month, the U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment warned that North Korea would pose a “growing threat” to the United States. He said Kim believed he would gain international acceptance as a nuclear power over time and “probably doesn’t consider the current level of pressure on his regime to be sufficient to require a fundamental change in his approach.”

Terry, who is at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it “makes sense” to offer North Korea a “phased agreement,” which would basically propose a reduction in sanctions in exchange for limited nuclear concessions.

“But in practice, that’s unlikely to work,” he said. “If Kim adheres to his decision, the talks will go nowhere and I doubt Biden’s team would be very surprised.”

To further complicate the situation, Washington is also trying to manage the expectations of Seoul, which favors the easing of sanctions and a greater economic commitment to Pyongyang and Tokyo, which maintains a much tougher line.

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, told the Financial Times that diplomacy with North Korea would be “partly bilateral and partly multilateral.”

This formulation pointed to another priority for the Biden administration: to avoid widening the gap between Japan and South Korea at a time when the United States is trying to work with allies to respond to China’s rise.

Biden’s caution over North Korea also reflected strong divisions among Washington experts about the extent to which the engagement with North Korea could be successful.

“If I am right in my belief that North Korea will not denuclearize, the goal of the [Biden administration’s] the policy should be to reduce the danger of these nuclear weapons, “said William Perry, a former US Secretary of Defense.

Despite Pyongyang’s turmoil, others believe Kim has not completely rejected diplomacy as she seeks relief from harmful economic sanctions.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a North Korean expert at King’s College London, noted several “positive signs,” including Kim’s adherence to a de facto moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile testing since his summit with Trump in Singapore in 2018.

Preparatory work was also underway for possible “two-way” talks: discussions on channels involving North Korean diplomats and foreign non-governmental experts, people familiar with the talks said.

“They have certainly left the door open,” said Glyn Ford, a former member of the European Parliament with close connections to senior North Korean officials. “I’m not sure how open the door is.”