Although business travelers are slow to return, vacationers continue to book flights

The big question for airlines may be whether corporate bookings will stage a similar recovery this fall.

Big-spending corporate customers account for the lion’s share of airline revenue and profits, but the International Business Travel Association predicted last month that the industry won’t return to pandemic spending levels until mid-2026—18 months later than last year’s forecast. – Such as inflation, high energy costs and other macroeconomic issues are slowing recovery.

Although there are fears that consumers will be deterred by inflation and want to avoid paying expensive airfares amid a weakening economy, airline executives say vacations are not slowing down.

“We’re looking at a very strong September. It doesn’t seem like winter is over — it’s that strong,” said Patrick Quayle, senior vice president of planning and alliances for the United Global Network.

Even as children return to school, people are still booking trips to Mexico, the Caribbean and Europe at the same rate as they did during the summer, he said. What’s more, travelers are shelling out more for premium economy seats.

“Historically, there’s always a break between August and September, and we’re not seeing that,” Cowen said at an investor conference.

United on Wednesday slightly raised its outlook for third-quarter revenue and margins, citing stronger demand and better-than-anticipated improvements in operating activity and cost-spreading.

Robert Isom, CEO of American Airlines Group Inc.,

He said that the demand is stable. “Our holiday season will continue to be strong as we go through Labor Day,” he said at the same event. “There was some question as to whether that would last.”

Airline shares rose Wednesday afternoon, with American up 2.5% to $13.55 and United up 3.3% to $37.77.

Airlines, workers in small and medium-sized companies have been back on the road for months, but large companies such as investment banks and consulting firms have been slow to return. Mr Esom said earnings from this segment were still only 75% back from 2019 levels.

While large corporations, including tech companies, have lagged behind, “I feel like there’s a little more energy coming back up and down the West Coast,” said Alaska Air Group’s Shane Tackett. Inc

Chief accountant.

Carriers say they’re hoping that will begin to change as Covid-19 continues to ease, with more companies sending workers back to the office and international markets opening up. Mr Isom said the divide between work and personal travel is blurring as people combine journeys.

Some analysts and industry observers are skeptical that the airline’s recovery will continue.

Eric Bernardini, head of the aerospace, defense and aviation practice at consulting firm Alix Partners, said: “My view is that going into recession, it will be difficult to sustain winter performance.” He said the nature of business travel has changed. “People will be more efficient in their travel.”

Write Alison Sider at alison.sider@wsj.com