AAA Holiday Travel Forecast: Expect Busy Roads, Busy Airports; Folded high regional destination

PORTLAND, Ore. (KTVZ) – AAA projects 112.7 million Americans (33.8% of the population) will travel for the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. This is up 3.3% from 2021 and closes in on pre-pandemic numbers.

About 1.6 million Oregonians pack up their skis for the holidays. 2022 is expected to be the third biggest year for holiday travel since AAA began tracking it in 2000, trailing only 2019 and 2018.

With nearly 90% of travelers driving to their holiday destinations, air travel is seeing a jump this year, up 14% from 2021. The holiday travel period is defined as Friday, December. 23rd to Monday 2nd January.

“Since Christmas Day and New Year’s Day fall on a Sunday, many are taking a long weekend to celebrate the holidays. And with hybrid work schedules, we’re seeing more flexibility in the days people travel because they can work remotely at their destination,” said Doreen Loughborough, senior vice president of travel for AAA Oregon/Idaho.

“Despite rollercoaster gas prices and a tough year for flights, people are ready to end the year with a vacation. This will be one of the busiest periods for holiday travel in the last two decades. Travelers should expect busy roads and crowded airports this holiday season,” says AAA Oregon/Idaho Public Affairs Director Marie Dodds.

Most of them travel by car

AAA projects that 102 million Americans (90.4% of travelers) drive to their vacation destinations. This is an increase of 2% compared to 2021. Driving this year is on par with 2018 but just shy of 2019, when 108 million Americans left town for the holidays, the highest year on record.

In Oregon, approximately 1.4 million drive.

Despite the high ticket price, air travel increases

Holiday air travel is up 14 percent this year, with nearly 7.2 million Americans flying to their holiday destinations. AAA expects the number of people taking holiday flights this year to match 2019, when 7.3 million Americans traveled by air.

Approximately 151,000 Oregonians travel by air. Overall, 6.4% of holiday travelers fly to their destination.

Air travel is more expensive this holiday season. AAA found that the average low airfare during the Christmas week was 6 percent higher than last year, reaching $163 for major U.S. destinations.

Those looking to book last-minute travel can find great fares, but availability will be limited.

AAA has advice for air travelers:

• If you can, catch the first flight of the day or early morning flights. They are less likely to be canceled or delayed.
• Try not to book tight connecting flights – you’ll want enough time to change flights if your departure flight is delayed.
• If possible, avoid airports for connecting flights where winter weather leads to delays, including Chicago O’Hare, Newark Liberty, LaGuardia, Denver and JFK.
• If you want to be at your destination on a specific date, book flights a day or two in advance to have a buffer.
• Download the airline’s app on your phone and set it up for push notifications so you can be notified of departure and arrival information as well as flight changes, delays or cancellations. FlightAware and other sites allow you to track your incoming flight so that you can find other options if the flight is delayed or canceled.
• Get to the airport early – at least two hours before domestic flights and three hours before international flights. The increase in travelers combined with staff shortages creates long wait times to get through security.
• If you need to park at the airport, reserve a parking spot in advance or at least check for availability before you go. Better yet, take transit, use a ride-sharing service, or ride a friend to the airport.
• Hold your bag on your flight instead of checking it in. If you need to check bags, bring medicine, a change of clothes, comfortable shoes and other necessary items in your bag. Make sure your bags have name tags, and also put your name and contact information in each bag.
• Some airports and flights still have reduced food and beverage service, so bring a refillable water bottle and snacks. Many airlines allow you to pre-order food 24 hours before your flight. TSA allows solid foods through screening, but liquids or gels (such as yogurt) must adhere to the 3-1-1 liquid rule.
• Consider signing up for TSA PreCheck, Global Entry and/or CLEAR to expedite the security screening process. Be sure to submit CLEAR as the airports you use are not available at all airports.
• attempt to accommodate you on a flight after your flight is canceled or there are significant delays; However, you are entitled to a full refund under federal law.

Travel by bus, train and boat

Travel by other modes, including buses, trains and cruises, will reach 3.7 million, a 23 percent increase from 2021. That’s 94 percent of the vote in 2019. A total of 3.2% of travelers walk. In these modes.

About 47,000 Oregonians will travel by these modes this year.

Gas prices are the same as last year

Those who hit the road for the holidays will find gas prices within 20 cents a gallon of last year’s prices.

The current (as of Dec. 14) national average for regular unleaded is $3.21 and Oregon’s average is $3.93. Find current prices at https://gasprices.aaa.com/

AAA members can fill up less at Shell stations when they join the Fuel Rewards® program at AAA.com/Shell. Save 30¢ per gal on your first fill-up at Shell when you join the Fuel Rewards® program on 12/31/23 and make your first purchase within 30 days of joining. After that, save 5¢/gal daily on each individual fill-up of up to 20 gallons from Shell stations.

High traffic is expected on December 23, 27, 28 and January 2

Travelers can expect the busiest routes on December 23, 27 and 28 and January 2. Delays are longest in the afternoons and evenings, especially in urban areas, as commuters mix with commuters. Some metro areas across the U.S. can see delays more than double the normal drive time, while large urban areas can see delays triple the normal.

“Knowing the busiest driving times can help you avoid getting stuck in stop-and-go traffic,” says Dodds.

Top holiday destinations

These are the trending destinations for domestic and international travel for AAA Oregon/Idaho members based on our AAA travel agents and AAA.com.

1. Maui, HI
2. Anaheim, California
3. Oahu, HI
4. Las Vegas, NV
5. Phoenix, AZ
6. Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
7. San Diego, California
8. Orlando, FL
9. Fort Lauderdale, FL
10. Cancun, Mexico

Based on our AAA travel agents and AAA.com, these are the top regional destinations for AAA Oregon/Idaho members.

1. fold, or
2. Seattle, WA
3. Lincoln City, OR
4. Medford/Ashland/Central Point, OR
5. Redding, CA
6. San Francisco, California
7. Boise, id
8. Sacramento, California
9. Newport, OR
10. Salt Lake City, UT

Hotels cost more, car rentals cost less.

According to the AAA Leisure Travel Index, prices at AAA’s Three Diamond-rated resorts rose 5% over the holiday, averaging $167 a year, up from $160 a year ago.

The average price for a AAA Two Diamond rated hotel was up 2 percent, with an average nightly rate of $144, up from $142 last year.

Daily car rental prices are down 19 percent to $105 from $130 last year.

What you need to know before you go – AAA tips for vacationers

• Check the remaining Covid-19 travel restrictions. While the United States and many other countries have imposed travel restrictions related to the coronavirus, some countries have requirements including testing, vaccinations and isolation. Get the latest updates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the US Department of Health and the CDC’s COVID-19 Data Tracker.
• Book your flights, accommodations, camping, rental car and activities in advance. High demand, limited capacity and staffing shortages mean last-minute availability can be severely reduced.
• Check cleaning standards. When booking a stay, look for accommodations that have prioritized cleanliness and implemented additional housekeeping requirements since the outbreak began. Last year, as part of its Diamond designation, AAA added to its housekeeping assessment the cleanliness and scientific validation of common surfaces in hotels. Hotels that meet these new standards are now known as Inspected Clean and an up-to-date list can be found here.
• Take all necessary travel documents, including health insurance cards.
• Consider working with a travel agent to plan your trip. This holiday season, they can help you plan the trip that best suits your needs and comfort level, get the best value for your vacation dollars, explore travel insurance options, assist with last-minute changes to travel plans, and serve as your advocate should the unexpected occur.
• Travel insurance. AAA strongly recommends travel insurance to cover unexpected delays or trip interruptions. It is best to consult a travel agent who can guide you through the coverage options available for your trip, including if your destination requires visitors to carry travel insurance.
• Prepare your car’s road-trip. Breakdowns are always a hassle, and you don’t want to be stuck on vacation. Find a trusted mechanic near you at AAA.com/repair.

AAA to the rescue

Before you go on a holiday road trip, make sure your vehicle is prepared to avoid breakdowns on the road. AAA expects to respond to 900,000 calls, including 14,000 Oregonians by the roadside. Dead batteries, locks and flat tires are the top three issues.

AAA makes it easy to request help — by phone (800-222-HELP), app or online — and members can track the service technician’s progress as they walk to your vehicle.

Before any long trip, AAA recommends an inspection to check key components such as the battery, fuel system, tires, brakes and fluid levels. Have your vehicle inspected by a trusted repair shop from one of the 7,000 AAA approved auto repair facilities in North America.

Make sure your vehicle and passengers are prepared for winter driving conditions. This includes having proper traction—snow tires, chains, and/or rubber socks—and an emergency kit in your vehicle. Also bring warm clothes and water and snacks. Get all the information and tips at AAA.com/winterprep.

Prediction method

In partnership with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a unique method to accurately predict domestic travel volume. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are used from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s proprietary database. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, stock indexes, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, fuel prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have calculated holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFLET travel performancemonitor^SM. performance/monitor^SM It is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of US residents. DK SHIFLET contacts more than 50,000 US households each month to obtain detailed travel information, creating a unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends and predict US travel behavior.

The travel forecast is reported in individual trips. In particular, AAA and IHS Markit forecast the total US holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation.

About AAA

Started in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts who wanted to pave the way for better roads and support safer driving in America, AAA has grown into one of North America’s largest membership organizations. AAA provides roadside assistance, travel, discounts, financing and insurance services to enhance the life journey of its 62 million members across North America, including 56 million in North America. Drivers can request roadside assistance, find nearby gas prices, find discounts, book a hotel or map a route through the AAA mobile app. Visit AAA.com to join.

Find the current fuel price on GasPrices.AAA.com.