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Two decades ago, Violeta Chamorro defeated Daniel Ortega in the Nicaraguan elections. This month, Ortega arrested Chamorro’s daughter as part of an unprecedented crackdown on opposition figures seeking to pave the way for his fourth consecutive presidential term.
The veteran strongman has chosen his goals one by one before the November vote. Since June 2, Ortega has arrested four presidential candidates, a senior businessman and two opposition leaders. An arrest warrant has also been issued for the president of the American Chamber of Commerce.
“Clearly he is clearing the field to run without any significant opposition,” said José Miguel Vivanco, executive director of the Americas Division of defense group Human Rights Watch.
For the first time, Ortega was Cristiana Chamorro, whose mother defeated the Sandinista rebel in the 1990 elections. Accused of money laundering, which she denies, she has been arrested at home.
Arturo Cruz, a former US ambassador, was next. He was arrested on arrival at Managua airport under a treason law passed by Ortega late last year, one of which battery of repressive measures designed to neutralize the opposition in the wake of the 2018 protests, in which about 450 people died.
Then came Felix Madariaga and Juan Sebastian Chamorro, Cristiana’s cousin, both accused of inciting foreign interference in internal affairs.
All four were potential candidates in the Nov. 7 election, in which Ortega, 75, who took power for the first time since the Sandinista Revolution overthrew the dictator, backed by the United States, Anastasio Somoza, the 1979, seeks another five-year term. He ruled from 1989 to 1990 and has been in power without interruption since 2007.
Also arrested were Violeta Granera, an opposition activist, José Pallais, former Foreign Minister, José Adán Aguerri, former head of the largest business lobby, Cosep. Amcham leader Mario Arana, a former central bank governor, is hiding.
“Daniel Ortega he is someone who would do anything to stay in power; there is no limit to the repression he would use, “said Bianca Jagger, a Nicaraguan human rights defender.
A consultant, who asked not to be appointed to protect the people he worked with in Nicaragua, called Ortega’s tactic a “partial cancellation of the election.” Or as Jagger said, “What you see is a Daniel Ortega who will never go into an election that he will lose.”
In fact, Ortega doubled control of the electoral apparatus in May and put his FSLN party in charge of executing the vote. He eliminated observers and allowed the ban on opposition parties.
Ortega’s increasingly blatant tactics are unlikely to spread in protests due to widespread fear. Masked paramilitaries fired on protesters in 2018 and Ortega has tightened the country even further ever since. As one of the locals said, “He controls everything.”
Activists and regional political leaders expected the US to rise. Nicaragua was included in what former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton called the “tyranny troika” alongside Cuba and Venezuela, although “Ortega has enjoyed years of neglect by the U.S. and the international community… so he has been able to cheer himself up… without scrutiny, “Maria Bozmoski told the Atlantic Council, a think tank.
Despite US sanctions on allies and senior officials, including his wife Rosario Murillo, who is vice president and spokeswoman for the regime, and some of his children, Ortega has dragged his nose in Washington.
Cristiana Chamorro was arrested while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was at a regional meeting in Costa Rica next door. Others were arrested while Vice President Kamala Harris was in Mexico.
Still, “the only letter left is the U.S.,” said Laura Chinchilla, a former president of Costa Rica. “Biden’s credibility is online.”
Julie Chung, Deputy Acting Secretary of the Western Hemisphere, he tweeted that “Nicaragua is becoming an international pariah and moving further away from democracy.”
The United States says it will reconsider Nicaragua’s trade access to the United States if it does not hold free and fair elections. But suspending him from Cafta-DR free trade agreement it could be counterproductive.
“Keeping Nicaragua in Cafta is like injecting blood into a dying patient and keeping him on oxygen,” Bozmoski said. But if Nicaragua were suspended, “the people who would suffer are the half a million who have jobs depending on the [export-oriented] free zone. These jobs would seek to exist.
Chinchilla urged lenders to “turn off the taps,” while Vivanco called for “an avalanche of specific sanctions against key officials” to increase the heat of Ortega’s regime.
But a veteran U.S. diplomat said that even if it worked, it risked “further impoverishing a region where we are trying to do something” and could lead to even more migration from Central America.
More than 100,000 Nicaraguans fled to Costa Rica during the 2018 protests, but figures reaching the U.S. border, while low, had risen slightly recently, the diplomat added.
Ortega’s control over the country, including the army and police, gives him protection, but the situation remains unstable.
“I’m not sure what’s going to happen,” the consultant said. “But I’m sure it’s not over.”
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