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Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman of Saudi Arabia spent most of his adult life as an expected energy minister. But just six days after becoming the first royal to take over the role, the kingdom’s oil production was halved by a series of drone and missile attacks that set fire to the crude oil processing plant. largest in the world.
The attack Abqaiq in September 2019, which Riyadh and Washington blame on Iran, was an initial test of Prince Abdulaziz, son of King Salman and half-brother of the kingdom’s notorious Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
As oil prices rose by 20%, the prince was flown by private plane from London to the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, after which he soon announced that the kingdom would be able to maintain the supply of oil while repairing the damage.
Oil traders watched the price reversal. But while Prince Abdulaziz might have been lucky in this case, the trials have barely stopped.
In less than two years he has had to navigate Saudi Aramco’s controversial public list in late 2019; the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic; a short-lived price war with Russia; and then calls on President Donald Trump for the kingdom to reverse course and lead a record reduction in world oil production.
According to his supporters, the 61-year-old prince, married for 34 years and with three twenty-year-old children, has proven to be equal to the task. “Were it not for his experience, none of these events would have overwhelmed an Energy Minister,” Bassam Fattouh says at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, where Prince Abdulaziz is a board member.
But for his critics, Prince Abdulaziz has his flaws, including the reduction of two of the biggest tests hidden in the background.
Rising oil prices: Brent crude rose above $ 70 a barrel this week – they are not well received when fears of inflation have resurfaced on the horizon. And his dismissal this week from the International Energy Agency’s “roadmap” for a zero net future as appropriate La La Land it has put him at odds with the change in sentiment in an industry that is finally taking climate change seriously.
His soft-spoken diplomatic speech often slips into these moments to reveal a totally haughty and sharp response to criticism or doubts more in line with his real status. “You never know what kind of Abdulaziz you will get,” says a veteran Opec delegate.
Slender and with academic-looking glasses, Prince Abdulaziz presents himself as a discreet but cunning negotiator who wants to build consensus. Years working for technocrats like former ministers Ali Al Naimi and Khalid Al Falih, people close to him say, is a sign of his temperament despite being a prince bestowed with immense privilege.
However, he enjoys the protagonists at press conferences and exercises his status as de facto head of the Opec and a direct line to the house of Saud to make his way.
Last year he warned traders who dared to bet on Saudi oil policy that “they would be like hell.” This week he said he wanted to “bring to his knees” the “speculators” in the oil market.
It has pushed other OPEC members to increase compliance with supply agreements. But he also praises those who do, leading an OPEC meeting in a round of applause in Iraq, a frequent delay, after coming close to its goals.
“He likes to be unpredictable, to some extent it’s a calculated unpredictability,” says Christyan Malek, head of oil research at JPMorgan.
Things get more complicated when he is asked to respond to the political actions of the kingdom, often by Prince Muhammad, who is its effective leader.
At last year’s Davos summit, a UK television team sought reaction to claims that Prince Mohammed had been involved in the phone piracy of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. As he was being chased down a hallway, Prince Abdulaziz said the line of questioning was “a mockery” and that the journalist was “stupid” before briefly pulling out the microphone.
He has made few comments about the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which the United States concluded was approved by Prince Mohammed, although his relationship is not believed to be close according to people who know Prince Abdulaziz.
His allies prefer to focus on his role in reviewing the domestic electricity sector and professionalizing the relationship between Saudi Aramco and the energy ministry.
But while Western oil companies are retiring in investing in fossil fuels under the pressure of climate change, the kingdom barely covers its bets.
Prince Mohammed wants to eliminate the Saudi economy from its dependence on oil, but Prince Abdulaziz sees an opportunity to increase production capacity, believing the world will always need a cheap source of abundant fuel.
Amrita Sen, an analyst at Energy Aspects, says Prince Abdulaziz “thinks deeply” about the challenges facing the world. “He is very careful about the energy sector. Reflect on many of these issues.
But there is unlikely to be any push to curb new oil projects, as proposed in the IEA’s zero-zero roadmap.
“Who set this stage [together]”Prince Abdulaziz said this week,” he is not in touch with reality. “
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