“You can not walk easily”: the memories of the Crimea push the reconstruction of the Ukrainian army

When Yuliy Mamchur, a colonel in the Ukrainian Air Force, attempted to defend a Russian attack on his base on the Crimean peninsula in 2014, his troops were hardly equipped for their mission.

“We were standing for a month surrounded by well-armed elite troops. We only had pistols and three machine guns to defend the air base, “Mamchur recalled.

The deplorable state of the Ukrainian army was exposed seven years ago when Russia seized the peninsula and subsequently provoked a separatist war in Donbas, in eastern Ukraine.

The troops lacked jackets and wore old Soviet helmets unable to stop bullets. Tanks and many armored vehicles did not work due to lack of parts and fuel shortages.

With Russia recently amassed about 110,000 troops along the eastern border of Ukraine and the occupied Crimean peninsula, Kiev now has a larger and more professional army with experience in battle to resist, if not defeat, Russian forces.

“We have been preparing for the enemy’s offensive since 2014,” Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said this week as he inspected the well-funded National Guard.

“And I want the aggressor to understand that the attack on Ukraine will not be an easy walk, it will be a huge loss for anyone who decides to enter our land without our consent.”

Russia ‘s military intentions – which on Wednesday ordered troops near the border to return to its bases – they are difficult to understand. But analysts, Ukrainian and Western officials say Kiev’s strongest armed forces would increase the military cost to Russia of a raid or invasion, which President Vladimir Putin should take into account when weighing any escalation.

Public support for a Russian offensive would be a concern for the Kremlin, said a European diplomat, who noted that while Russians supported the annexation of Crimea, they feel less united in the Donbass.

In the years leading up to Moscow’s aggression in 2014, Ukraine’s armed forces had been hungry for resources from a pro-Kremlin president, Viktor Yanukovych. But defense spending doubled to 3.4% of gross domestic product in 2019, from 1.6% in 2013, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The number of troops has expanded.

Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine in 2014 and now at the Center for Defense Reform, based in Kiev, estimates that Ukraine has about 250,000 active military (International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates 209,000) and 1 million reservists, 250,000 of whom have combat experience, compared to just 60,000 soldiers prepared for battle in 2014.

The Ukrainian army has evolved from a core of trained soldiers complemented by battalions of volunteers to a more professional corps, hardened by years of struggle.

NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said Ukraine’s security and defense sector had “come a long way” over the past seven years and emphasized progress in areas such as defense planning and education. military.

Allies, including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Lithuania, have provided training to Ukrainian forces, while NATO has focused on strengthening command and control capabilities and improving communications.

“In 2014 Ukraine was caught unawares, the military was poorly trained, poorly equipped and there was a high level of corruption,” said Yohann Michel, IISS defense analyst. “One of the most important effects [of training] it is in morale. Anything you can do to make the troops feel more professional will make them work more professionally. “

These efforts are in line with Kiev’s broader plan to meet NATO standards, with the goal of eventually joining the alliance.

“The improvements relate to the modernization and professionalization of the armed forces, but it is also about their goal of moving closer to NATO,” said Sarah Lain, a Ukrainian researcher at the Royal United Services Institute.

Kyiv has also invested in hardware. The tanks and artillery of the Soviet era have been refurbished. New precision weapons have been developed or obtained from the West, including more than 300 U.S. Javelin anti-tank missiles. Rocket systems have been updated.

Two years ago, Ukraine acquired six Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey, just as Azerbaijan used them to achieve victory over Armenia in last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Ukraine is holding talks with Turkey on the purchase of an additional 48.

The use of drones for reconnaissance and with limited attack capability is one of the ways for Kyiv to overcome the shortcomings of its aging aircraft fleet, but Michel of the IISS warned that the Russians will be prepared with blocking technology and anti-drone defenses.

“Like the Javelin, these drones will not change the overall balance of the conflict and will likely not overwhelm Russia,” he said.

Kyiv also lacks comprehensive anti-aircraft and anti-aircraft capabilities, and so far has not convinced the United States to help fill that gap by providing Patriot missile systems.

Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, said he had conveyed “some specific needs” of the Ukrainian army to Washington, but the US response would depend on Russia’s actions.

However, Western allies, including the United States and the United Kingdom, offer vital surveillance functions and, since the accumulation of troops in Moscow last month, have intensified the deployments of spy planes over areas occupied by the US. Russian forces.

“It provides peace of mind and intelligence to the Ukrainians and also sends a signal to Moscow so we know where you are and what you are doing,” a Western defense official said.

James Sherr, a senior member of the Estonian Institute for Foreign Policy at the International Center for Defense and Security, warned that even obtaining modern equipment would not address the main weaknesses of Ukraine’s defense. , as he faces “one of the world’s modern masters, a very mobile combined war of arms and maneuvers.”

“Ukrainian forces are not trained for this and have not been given the resources for it,” he said.

Danylyuk said Russia has the military strength to “trigger massive aggressions” and could capture territory to allow it to restore water supply to the Crimea, which is considered one of Moscow’s possible targets. “But are they ready to pay the price?”

“This time it will not be an easy walk for Russia this time. . . There will be tens of thousands of casualties, ”said Mamchur, who is in the Ukrainian reserve forces, and is ready to serve again.