Why is Suga so determined to move on with the Tokyo Olympics?

At the lowest time in May, more than 80% of the Japanese public wanted to cancel or postpone the upcoming Olympics, almost no one in the country was vaccinated and medical experts lined up to rate the games a risk. Covid-19 intolerable.

Despite intense pressure on Tokyo 2020, Japan has not yet been on the verge of canceling the Olympics, according to government and organizing committee officials. Instead, they have tried to run the clock and create a sense of inevitability around games.

This determination to move forward has nothing to do with financial considerations, analysts said, but it reflects a mix of electoral policy, a good commitment on China and a practical calculation by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

There are growing signs that Suga’s political judgment was correct. According to the usual NHK poll, the percentage of Japanese audiences who want to cancel games has dropped to 31%, and nearly two-thirds have said games should continue limits to viewers.

“People are basically resigned to the games that are taking place,” said Atsuo Ito, a political analyst and former official of the Liberal Democratic Party. “If it happens, so be it.”

For Suga, a simple fact dominates the calculations about the Olympic Games: four years have passed since the last general election in Japan and he has to call another one on October 22nd. For him to survive as the party leader, the LDP must fare well in this election.

Many of his allies believe that his best bet is a successful game. “Suga and the people around him think that if the games happen, the Olympic fever will take advantage,” said Takao Toshikawa, editor of the Tokyo Insideline political bulletin. “If there is a rush for medals in Japan, they will want to call elections as soon as possible.”

With the Paralympics closed on September 5, Suga hopes to reach the public almost immediately afterwards and drive a sensational Olympic factor for four more years in power.

Some Suga bureaucratic advisers believe holding the Olympics is an electoral risk, Ito said, because a large increase in traceable coronavirus infections at the games could turn into a damaging scandal.

However, the advice of epidemiologists suggested that simply holding the games was not as dangerous, especially since 80% of those traveling to Japan will be vaccinated. He danger of hands is born of the increase in national travel and social contact, but the organizers of Tokyo 2020 hope to control it by limiting the number of spectators to the premises.

Cancellation carries its own political risks. Suga could gain momentum in the short term if he was seen as a decisive leader protecting the country, but he would have to contest the election as the man who left the games after years of effort and trillions of yen in money public.

Several other political factors weigh in favor of moving forward. The Tokyo Games are central to the legacy of Shinzo Abe, Suga’s predecessor as prime minister. Abe is still a power agent in the LDP and Suga needs his support.

Japanese leaders are also well aware of this Beijing will host the Winter Olympics in early 2022. A triumphant game in China, held just eight months after an ignominious Japanese failure, is a prospect few PUD politicians want to contemplate.

Suga has been betting for months that sentiment will change when voters receive their vaccines against Covid and, after long delays, the implementation of Japan is finally picking up pace. The country delivers more than 600,000 vaccines a day and aims to reach 1 million this month. Between 30% and 40% of the country will have had at least one dose when the games start.

A common theory in Japan is that the International Olympic Committee forces the country to host the games. “They’ve put us in a situation where we can’t even stop,” said Kaori Yamaguchi, former judo champion and executive member of the Japanese Olympic Committee, this month.

But lawyers said the IOC had limited leverage, because Japan had relatively little to lose economically due to a cancellation. “Most of the money that Japan entered has already been spent on infrastructure, hotels, the Olympic Village and things like that,” said Irwin Kishner, Herrick’s sports lawyer, Feinstein in New York.

After last year’s postponement, Japan no longer expects much revenue from Tokyo 2020 and will lose most of what is left if it decides to limit the number of spectators and return of ticket sales.

The IOC, for its part, remains in line with the full revenue of its broadcasting rights and direct sponsors, which explains its insistent insistence that the games should go ahead “except Armageddon” and even if Tokyo remains under a Covid state of emergency.

Although the organizers of Tokyo 2020 have no contractual right of cancellation, the IOC would have little recourse if Japan closed the borders and made it impossible to hold the games.

“How would the IOC pursue the Japanese government?” asked Nick White, Charles Russell Speechlys’ sports lawyer in London. “Even if I found a way to sue them, I think any sensible court would say a government has a right to impose restrictions on public health grounds.”

Fortunately for the IOC, the interests of the Japanese Prime Minister have aligned with his own. Unless the coronavirus situation deteriorates markedly over the next few weeks, the Olympic cauldron will be lit in Tokyo on July 23rd.