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A bullet fired by an unstable man in Times Square on a Saturday in May ended up injuring a four-year-old girl buying toys with her family. He may also have changed career path for the New York mayoralty and altered a national discussion about crime and policing.
Within hours, Eric Adams, a retired police captain and mayoral candidate, used the scene as a backdrop to a press conference declaring his claim as candidate for law and order. Adams rejected activists’ calls to “detune” police and instead promised to send more officers to the streets to tame the violent firearm.
It seemed to work: in Tuesday’s Democratic primary he won the the majority of votes, reinforcing how a contest that began as a debate over how to revive a city affected by the coronavirus pandemic had been overwhelmed by concerns about crime and public safety.
The next day, at the White House, President Joseph Biden seemed to be singing a similar tune. “Now is not the time to turn our backs on law enforcement,” Biden said, when he announced measures to curb gun violence, from helping communities hire more police to attacking illegal weapons. Biden, who intended to lead a promising line of Republican attack, said his administration “was taking on the bad actors who were doing bad things in our communities.”
Violent crime, which has been declining for a generation in the United States, has already returned to the political agenda after a national wave of shootings and murders.
Homicides increased by 18% compared to this point in 2020, a year in which murders also increased, according to shows of 72 cities New Orleans crime analyst Jeff Asher and many experts expect it to get worse over the summer.
In New York City, executions rose 53% on June 20 and more than 100% in the past two years. The 1,402 shooting incidents in Chicago over the same period were up 58% from 2019. In Atlanta, the rise in violence has given a new impetus to the push for residents of the affluent Buckhead neighborhood to separate. of the larger city so that they can form their own Police Department.
Republicans understand the issue, denounce the illegality of “democratic cities” and blame progressive demands for “spreading” the police. This week the party accused Biden and his Democrats of doing “everything in their power to subvert law enforcement.”
But violence is widespread and not limited to areas under democratic control. A database maintained by the Gun Violence Archive counted 26 mass shootings since June 15, from places like Newark, New Jersey and Washington, DC to Aurora, Colorado, Anchorage, Alaska and Albertville, Alabama.
“This same exact phenomenon happens in every city in the country (big, medium, small, Democratic, Republican, red, blue), it doesn’t matter,” said Mike Lawlor, a professor of criminal justice at New Haven University. he was a Democratic member of the Connecticut House of Representatives. “Shots are everywhere.”
Most criminal justice experts believe the pandemic has played a role, either by worsening economic deprivation, closing down courts or blocking young people in crowded neighborhoods with few means of entertainment.
William Bratton, who headed the New York City and Los Angeles police departments, also violates some of the criminal justice reforms aimed at reducing the prison population, which he believes have been excessive. Among them: the New York move to end cash bail for all but the worst crimes.
The most politically charged suggestions for increased murders point to anti-police protests over the summer in response to the assassination of George Floyd, or as a result of a setback in police activity. But the data belies such simple explanations, according to Asher.
The increase in killings occurred in cities of all sizes, not just in places where protests erupted, and he said, “If you do the calculations comparing where there were more protests or where there were more violent protests and rising murder rates, there is simply no relationship. ”
While shootings and homicides have increased, other crimes, such as robberies, have continued to decline over the past year. This has led Lawlor to a more nuanced theory.
Executions, he notes, are usually concentrated among people known to law enforcement and are often the result of gang pay cycles. Police have become adept at curbing them in recent years by identifying potential perpetrators and then hiring community leaders trained to intervene.
These face-to-face meetings to gather intelligence and build relationships have not been possible during the pandemic, let alone after last year’s police assassination of Floyd damaged relations between minority communities and law enforcement. .
“If the community doesn’t trust the police and the police give up a community, that breaks down,” Lawlor said. Meanwhile, officers have left departments demoralized in large numbers.
For the moderate establishment of the Democratic Party, the rise in violence presents a challenge to address progressive calls to “dismantle” – and even abolish – the police, while avoiding the aggressive impulses of the bill on 1994 crimes signed by Democratic President Bill Clinton.
Biden spent much of his recent presidential campaign repenting of black voters for his past support for legislation that entailed mandatory sentences, “three-strike” rules, and a racial discussion of “super predators” on urban streets. Many Republicans, including Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House, also now express their regret.
While Biden promised more police this week, it also offered funding for job training programs. Not everyone was impressed. Kofi Ademola, an adviser to Chicago’s anti-violence group Good Kids Mad City, said the violence was “okay” when concentrated in the poorest neighborhoods, but when it moves to affluent areas, “it’s when it becomes an emergency.”
“Looking at Biden’s plan, you’ll see more dollars going to the police than so-called summer jobs or evidence-based jobs,” he added.
The group does not want more police, but is asking for a city ordinance that will carry 2% of the police budget, about $ 35 million, and spend it on youth employment programs, counseling and mediation, and an end to violence. .
Christopher Hayes, a professor of urban studies at Rutgers University, was concerned that the most effective policies to reduce violence are not the easiest to sell to voters.
“It’s politically appropriate to look at it and say, ‘Things are out of control. We have to deal with it with a hammer, “Hayes said.” What is not convenient is to say, ‘a lot of people involved are poor.’
Assuming he becomes the next mayor of New York City (a final count is expected in a few weeks), Adams, who is black, may be the best test case of Democrats’ ability to deal with crime without creating toxic side effects. For months, he has been promising voters that he has a unique experience of addressing violent spots and taking up arms on the streets, while reforming the department and repairing community relations.
As Adams said in a recent interview, “I support the closure of Rikers (the island’s prison), but I also support the closure of the gas pipeline that feeds Rikers.”
Soon New Yorkers and the nation will see if this is possible.
Additional reports by James Politi in Washington and Claire Bushey in Chicago
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