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It’s easy to feel like it’s the coronavirus pandemic it is back out of control. The rate of new cases hit a record last week, with 5.2 million people worldwide infected, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Three months ago, many in India celebrated the prospect of the country approaching herd immunity; now the number of new cases is growing at an alarming rate.
In Europe, regulators and politicians are still trying to deal with the security issues that have existed about the AstraZeneca vaccine: in the United States, health agencies have done so suspended use of Jab J&J.
But the rain of depressing headlines cannot disguise one thing: it is now clear that vaccines they are working. In countries where cases have been falling in recent months, vaccines have saved lives. And in countries still struggling to suppress a third or fourth wave, vaccines have also saved lives.
An FT analysis of data from five countries (each facing very different scenarios) finds that infection, hospitalization and mortality rates have charted a lower path among older and more vaccinated age groups than among the most young, less likely to have received the puncture.
This is regardless of the number of viral cases, whether the infections are rising or falling, or whether a country is tackling some of the new variants.
The results contrast sharply with the patterns observed during previous viral waves, prior to the introduction of vaccines, when older age groups found that disease rates decreased more slowly than young people.
None of this is diminishing the challenges that lie ahead. The data also show that for large parts of the developing world where vaccines are scarcer, many millions will remain at risk over the coming months.
But in countries that have vaccinated the largest proportion of their populations, there are tentative signs, as shown in the FT charts below, that the end of Covid could be in sight.
The UK vaccine effect
A la UK, case rates, hospital admissions, and deaths have fallen steadily since January among all age groups, suggesting that restrictions have helped suppress the high winter wave of infections. But below the surface trend, rates for all three measures have fallen more and more rapidly among the older, more vaccinated groups.
Test by age
In fact, the impact of the UK’s strict prioritization of access to vaccines by age is easily seen in the case data. As each age group was eligible for vaccination, their proportion of all cases has decreased. The proportion of cases among those over the age of 80 has fallen by 80% since vaccinations began.
The vaccine effect in France
In France, a third wave of the virus has hampered progress, but the same telltale signs of vaccinations are evident. Case and hospitalization rates rose again in March, but rose much more slowly among the most vaccinated age groups than the least. Deaths continued to fall among the elderly despite the resurgence of the young.
The threat of B.1.17
The resurgence of the pandemic in France – and many others in recent weeks – was fueled by the arrival of the B.1.1.7 variant originating in the United Kingdom in September. By March, it had become the dominant variant throughout Europe and is now spreading across North America.
The American experience
The arrival of the “UK variant” in the United States threatened one of the most impressive vaccine launches in the world, but, as in France, the data suggest that vaccines continue to work exactly as expected. Although the variant has increased hospital admission rates, this increase has been driven by the young, while admission rates among the elderly have continued to decline.
Chile faces a third wave
The most severe vaccine test has arrived in Chile, where a rapid implantation of China’s Sinovac sink coincided with a third substantial wave of the virus. But once again, age breakdowns tell a hopeful story about vaccines. Occupancy in intensive care units has more than doubled among younger adults, while it is among the age groups prioritized for vaccination.
The world battle continues
Many countries are still struggling with serious outbreaks. Among them is India, which currently reports more than 200,000 new cases a day. The proportion of their positive tests is increasing faster than any other country, suggesting that many cases are being lost and that, in the most affected areas of the country, ICUs are full. Only 8% of the population has received at least one dose of vaccine so far.
The struggle of Latin America
Like India, most countries that are still battling brutal outbreaks are in the developing world. But in Latin America, Uruguay has reported an increase in the daily figure of Covid-19 from 1.15 per million on March 1 to 18.55 on April 15, placing it in the third place in the world. Neighbors in Argentina and Brazil are also suffering from the death toll from the virus. The latter has added 123,000 deaths in the last two months, bringing the total to almost 375,000.
Key data found in excess of deaths
The increased availability of Covid-19 data in the Western world has sometimes given the impression that the United States, the United Kingdom and the pockets of Europe have been the hardest hit by the pandemic, but a more thorough analysis shows that the Latin America has undoubtedly suffered the most. Using the concept of excess deaths: the number of people dying from all causes above the seasonal norm, Latin American countries have four of the five highest mortality rates worldwide.
The end of Covid?
The key to getting India and Latin America out of the pandemic is the same as it is everywhere: vaccines. After a year in which hundreds of millions have lived under life-saving restrictions, the goal is to get to the point where people can spend more time socializing with few restrictions while cases continue to fall. Israel seems to have came to the end of Covid, and the UK is hot. As countries continue their vaccination programs, more will join them.
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