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A significant storm system is likely to cross the entire mid-US during the second half of next week. Here are some travel tips to avoid dangerous weather changes while you’re away from home.
I have some travel planning tips. I want to stress that this storm is still six to seven days away from Michigan and surrounding states. That’s still a significant enough amount of time to see significant changes in weather specifications. On the other hand, the best model in this situation has not changed much in the last four days.
A large storm will move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley next Thursday through Friday. Mild air and rain ahead of the storm system, especially for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee. Some parts of southern Michigan could move into milder air and rain on the storm front. Where it rains, this is a bad sign. The wet area experiences a rapid temperature drop and becomes an area of concern for flash-freezing. The flash is if the rain continues until the exact moment of rapid temperature drop.
My first suggestion is to realize that this should be a very dangerous driving situation next Thursday or Friday. So be sure to check my MLive updates over the weekend and early next week. I will continue to show the changes in time and how the weather plays out.
My second tip is to start planning your trip on a Wednesday or Tuesday afternoon or evening. Thursday may have a window of good travel conditions, but you’ll be racing against a very strong Arctic cold front. If you don’t beat the race to your destination, your drive may end up on an interstate-turned-skating rink. I think it’s a safer bet to have your travel companions ready to go on Wednesday.
The most accurate computer model here is the latest computer model, the European Central Weather Forecast Model, also known as ECMWF or Euro for short. The forecast animation will start next Wednesday. You can definitely feel for a big winter storm.
Surface weather forecast for Wednesday, December 21st until 7am Christmas morning.
The track of a storm’s center makes all the difference in the world about the weather conditions at a given location. The northern half of Lower Michigan and the UP will likely be all snow for the entirety of the storm. The south may warm up to rain at times Thursday, then strong temperatures will drop to below freezing. It is the southern part of Michigan that can be accessed on flash-snow. A flash-freeze is possible in southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee. Notice in the forecast animation that it extends from the green-to-pink-to-blue area to the south Thursday night and Friday. It changes from rain to snow when a flash-freeze occurs.
As the storm moves east, Michigan and surrounding states should see rain turn to all snow and continue into Friday. In fact, another inch or two of cold, fine snow may fall.
If the conditions don’t change, Friday will not be a good day for traveling with very cold snow and strong winds blowing and drifting.
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be the safest days to have the safest road conditions for driving next week. Unless you can drive a short distance in Michigan and beat the arrival of an arctic front and it’s flash-freezing, Thursday is likely to be a road trip day. If you don’t want to drive in blowing and sleet, Friday can also be a roadless travel day.
Related Reading:
As an Arctic front passes through Michigan next week, dangerous flash snow is possible.
See why Lower Michigan is the banana belt of the winter Great Lakes
Lake Michigan, Lake Huron loses more than 3 trillion gallons of water in November.
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