The spread of the Delta variant in the United States overshadows during the July 4th festivities

Scientists have warned that July 4 celebrations across the United States run the risk of accelerating the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19, particularly in areas of the country where vaccination rates have declined.

The United States is preparing for a celebratory Independence Day weekend full of parades, concerts and fireworks shows, in contrast to last year, when many important events were canceled due to concern by the virus.

Despite progress in the fight against the pandemic, experts say that massive domestic travel and large gatherings may increase the spread of the Delta variant, especially between unvaccinated people, increasing the possibility of localized rises in cases and hospitalizations.

“Take a variant of the hyper-transmissible Delta and great gatherings, along with the emotional mindset in America that the pandemic is over. . . and you can absolutely rely on an increase in cases, ”said Gregory Poland, director of the vaccine research group at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota.

Joe Biden, however, has put forward plans to host a July 4 party for more than 1,000 people on the southern lawn of the White House. The President of the United States will also visit Michigan on July 3 on a tour titled “America’s Back Together” to promote progress against the disease and promote vaccines.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Biden said he was not worried about a major outbreak, but encouraged people to get vaccinated. His administration has already admitted that it will not meet its target of reaching at least once 70% of adults before the July 4 holiday.

“I’m concerned that people who haven’t been vaccinated have the ability to capture the variant and spread the variant to other people who haven’t been vaccinated,” he said, adding, “On the fourth of July this year it’s different … than the quarter of July last year and it will be better next year. “

Although the number of cases has dropped dramatically since the pandemic peak earlier this year, there are concerns about the possibility that the spread of the Delta variant will complicate this progress. In some states where Delta is the most common, cases are on the rise again.

According to a Financial Times analysis of the latest sequencing data submitted to the global Gisaid repository, the variant now accounts for the majority of genetically sequenced cases in the US.

It is now estimated that approximately three out of five cases nationwide come from the highly transmissible variant first detected in India and the prevalence is 90% in some states.

These figures are aligned with the estimate of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of 26% national prevalence, but are calculated using more up-to-date figures that point to the continued growth of the strain.

Although Delta is about 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, according to UK government research, the three vaccines authorized against Covid-19 in the US have been shown to be effective in preventing serious disease. Nearly 156 million people in the United States are completely vaccinated, according to CDC data.

UK government research has shown that two doses of the BioNTech / Pfizer prick are 88% effective against symptomatic Delta diseases, while preliminary data from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson show that their pricks cause antibodies against the variant.

But U.S. officials are especially concerned about the spread of Delta to parts of the country with low vaccination rates. About 1,000 U.S. counties have vaccination rates below 30 percent, according to Rochelle Walensky, CDC director.

“As the Delta variant continues to spread across the country, we expect to see increased transmission in these communities, unless we can vaccinate more people,” he said Thursday.

After a start of strong bubbles, the launch of the American vaccine has slowed down and states have tried to attract doubters offering rewards ranging from free food and drinks to the chance to win millions of dollars.

As a sign of concern, the White House said it will deploy wave response teams to help community leaders with tasks such as testing and tracking contacts.

The danger posed by Delta is evident in Missouri, where the strain accounts for 90% of new cases, according to the FT analysis. Growing hospitalizations in the southwest of the state have forced some hospitals to relocate patients to other facilities.

“Missouri is almost the epicenter of the Delta variant in the United States right now,” said Alexander Garza, commander of pandemic incidents for the Saint Louis region.

He said 37% of hospital admissions in the area are under 45 years old. The large meetings scheduled for this weekend provide the “optimal environment” for the virus to spread, especially among unvaccinated people, he added.

In Missouri, 56% of people have received a dose of vaccine, compared to more than 70% in New York.

Despite the availability of vaccines and the passage of many state and local authorities to ease restrictions, some U.S. health officials are encouraging people to continue to act with caution in light of the increased transmissibility of Delta.

This week, officials in Saint Louis and Los Angeles County recommended that people wear masks indoors, regardless of their vaccination status, in contrast to the CDC. mask guide provided.

Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles County’s director of public health, said that while vaccines are effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths from Delta, wearing masks indoors will reduce transmission.

Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar in infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins University Health Security Center, said unvaccinated states will bear the brunt of the increase in hospitalizations resulting from the July 4 weekend. “The Delta variant will not be a systemic risk but a regional risk,” he added.

Additional reports from Lauren Fedor in Washington