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The writer, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s leading global strategist, is the author of “The Ten Rules of Successful Nations”
The question that is often asked – which nations win the fight against the pandemic – now has only one coherent answer. It depends on the month. The virus has repeatedly lost the winners and vice versa.
Not long ago, the United States and the United Kingdom were punished for incompetent responses led by “Iliberal populists” and inspired by a clueless “faith in its national greatness.” They are now highly praised rapid deployment of vaccines, and considered the safest places to vacation this summer.
Meanwhile, many nations that initially received praise for containing the virus, from Asia to Europe, have since suffered debilitating growth, slow deployment of vaccines or both. What is striking about all these cases is the speed with which broad national and cultural stereotypes were used to explain success and failure, which were then so quickly forgotten. No one in the US says a “third world ” now.
The search for winning strategies began in South Korea and Taiwan, where low burdens were attributed to well-prepared bureaucracies and orderly societies ready to follow the rules to some extent. ”this is hard to imagine in the westThat was before Korea, in particular, suffered a rebound in cases.
After 102 days of running without local cases, Thailand was cited as a model last September by the World Health Organization, which accredited a strong investment in public health. Many analysts went further, citing Thailand and its neighbors in the Mekong region for cultures that reward cleanliness and frown on social touch.
Lifestyle explanations were also offered about the low number of early deaths in India. Life spent in densely packed homes, consuming unhealthy foods and drinking dirty water allowed millions of Indians to build an “innate immunity” to pathogens, including coronavirus. Or that was the story. Last month, Thailand was hit and India crashed due to rising cases.
Stereotypical success stories have had an equally short lifespan in the West. From Sweden slightly challenging tactile approach to the blockades has had his admirers, who speculated that the country “Culture of conformity” it would impose safe behavior. In addition, many Swedes were said to be solitary types, a natural form of social distancing. Cases increased anyway last autumn and the King of Sweden himself he declared its strategy is a failure.
Germany slipped at the same time. After containing a first wave, I was one of the many analysts who thought this highlighted pre-existing German strengths, from efficient government to cooperative federalism. Others praised a population with a rational mindset that was willing to follow “scientist in chief” Angela Merkel. Then in the winter it hit the second wave, much stronger.
Perhaps no country has suffered a harder fall than Canada, which had a much lower case load than the United States last summer. Canadians proudly believed in superior health care and a community spirit, and a “healthy” political culture led by a prime minister who did not opt for strange medical theories.
Now, the distribution of the vaccine is unfolding faster in the United States than in Canada. The Canadian daily count of cases has skyrocketed above the US. Canadians profess a new “humiliating” admiration for American medical know-how. So do some Europeans. But history will judge how nations went throughout the course of the pandemic, not in May 2021.
True, the virus has not been destroyed “the already mistreated idea of American exceptionalism”, As many expected a year ago. But no major country has yet achieved herd immunity. Reopenings and locks have been trial and error experiments, which have been developed at different speeds around the world. No one can be sure how the ending is played.
Vaccines can be the miracle weapon that will eventually win this battle. U.S. Centers for Disease Control is so careful to send a message that although vaccines are highly effective, it is not yet fully understood whether they will work against all variants. He has not declared victory. Others would not be wise.
The lesson for armchair epidemiologists: choosing winners in the middle of a fight is a mistake. Recall that last month’s victory claims went wrong before rushing to declare new winners this month. Recognize that the virus has its own long-term survival plan.
More importantly, look at how poor cultural stereotypes explain success and failure. Cartoons of quick sketches have never been useful tools for predicting the rise and fall of nations. The coronavirus has re-exposed them as a superficial thought.
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