Services PMI® at 51.9%; April 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 52%; New Orders Index at 56.1%; Employment Index at 50.8%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 48.6%

TEMPE, Ariz., May 3, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month as the Services PMI^® registered 51.9 percent, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The sector has grown in 34 of the last 35 months, with the lone contraction in December.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In April, the Services PMI^® registered 51.9 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than March’s reading of 51.2 percent. The composite index indicated growth in April for the fourth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December, the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 52 percent, a 3.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 55.4 percent in March. The New Orders Index expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 56.1 percent is 3.9 percentage points higher than the March reading of 52.2 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries registered 48.6 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher than the 45.8 percent recorded in March. Looking back beyond the past few months, this month the index has reflected the fastest supplier delivery performance since December 2015, when it registered 48.5 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index was up 0.1 percentage point in April, to 59.6 percent. The Inventories Index contracted in April after two consecutive months of growth preceded by eight straight months of contraction; the reading of 47.2 percent is down 5.6 percentage points from March’s figure of 52.8 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (48.9 percent, down 9 percentage points from March’s reading of 57.9 percent) contracted after four consecutive months of growth preceded by a four-month period of contraction.

“Fourteen industries reported growth in April. The Services PMI^®, by being above 50 percent for a fourth month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector. The composite index has indicated expansion for all but three of the previous 159 months.”

Nieves continues, “There has been a slight uptick in the rate of growth for the services sector, due mostly to the increase in new orders and ongoing improvements in both capacity and supply logistics. The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions; however, some respondents are wary of potential headwinds associated with inflation and an economic slowdown.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 14 services industries reporting growth in April — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Construction; Finance & Insurance; and Information. The three industries reporting a decrease in the month of April are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Wholesale Trade.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Lead times are improving. Suppliers are struggling with how to position themselves with pricing; those keeping prices higher despite a drop in input costs are at risk of losing their business to those that are willing to adjust prices in line with lower input costs.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “High mortgage rates continue to weigh on new residential construction. With demand down, material suppliers are curtailing production to maintain pricing levels. Labor continues to be constrained, but some negotiation room is developing as the slowdown drags on.” [Construction]
• “At the beginning of the second quarter, business conditions are steady, and we’re preparing for planned expansion in the third quarter. Watching the economy and overall market forecasts and trends.” [Finance & Insurance]
• “We continue to see strong patient volumes and revenue performance, though inflationary pressures and labor shortages still persist. Supply chain performance is improving, but there are still some major medical/surgical equipment suppliers who seem to be stuck in a perpetual back-ordered state with forecasted ‘get well’ dates well into May. Overall, we expect to see gradual improvement in the next quarter.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “Inflation concerns has our company maintaining a cautious approach to the future.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• “We are well on track to still see significant growth in production through calendar year 2023, as well as 2024 and 2025. We are seeing significant increases in order backlogs and inventory on hand to support the increased production, as well as several attempts to increase employment levels needed to support (forecasted) production increases.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Lead times on construction equipment and steel are still long, especially for HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) equipment and generators.” [Public Administration]
• “Retail environment is lower year over year, but trends are stable year to date. Inventory levels are coming more in line to match the new lower demand trends.” [Retail Trade]
• “Material prices continue to decline — except for energy and chemicals — but are still above pre-pandemic levels. inflation and recession uncertainties still weigh on decisions.” [Utilities]
• “Prices are coming down, but the decreases are small and not materially close to 2019 pricing. Labor in general is still and issue.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
• “Business activity remains relatively flat compared to last month. Inventories are much more balanced versus demand, and supply chains are near full recovery. Optimistic about demand and business activity in later spring and summer months.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum Products (2); Chemicals; Electrical Components (27); Electronic Components (4); Fuel (2); Gasoline (3); Labor (29); Labor — Construction; Labor — Skilled (3); Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies; Pharmaceuticals (2); Resins; Steel; and Steel Products* (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Chicken Products; Copper Based Products; Eggs; and Steel Products*.

Commodities in Short Supply
Appliances (5); Construction Materials; Electrical Components; Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment; Labor (6); Labor — Construction (3); Needles and Syringes (4); Semiconductors (4); Tourniquets (3); Transformers (8); and Vehicles (10). 

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.

APRIL 2023 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In April, the Services PMI^® registered 51.9 percent, a 0.7-percentage point increase compared to the March reading of 51.2 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the April Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is growing for the fourth consecutive month after one month of contraction in December. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for April (51.9 percent) corresponds to a 0.7-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 52 percent in April, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the reading of 55.4 percent in March, indicating growth for the 35th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “New customers added as our business continues to grow” and “We have received less business from our clients this month as they tighten spending for a potential downswing in the economy.”

The 14 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of April — listed in order — are: Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Construction; and Finance & Insurance. The two industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of April are: Mining; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 56.1 percent, up 3.9 percentage points from the March reading of 52.2 percent. The index indicated expansion for the fourth consecutive month after contracting in December, ending a string of 30 consecutive months of growth. Comments from respondents include: “Demand outpacing forecasts” and “New requests for services from customers.”

The 16 industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of April — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; and Construction. The only industry reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of April is Mining.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector grew in April for the third consecutive month, with the index registering 50.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage point from the March figure of 51.3 percent. This is the most stability for the Employment Index in more than a year, as it ping-ponged between expansion and contraction nine times in 2022, never spending more than two months above or below 50 percent. Comments from respondents include: “We continue to hire to build up our staffing levels” and “Attrition without backfills.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in employment in April — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Utilities; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. The two industries reporting a decrease in employment in April are: Finance & Insurance; and Educational Services. Eight industries reported no change in employment in April.

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48.6 percent, up 2.8 percentage points from the 45.8 percent recorded in March. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. The April reading indicates supplier deliveries are faster, but at a slower rate compared to the previous month. Comments from respondents include: “Supply chain capacity continues to increase” and “Suppliers are catching up as demand has flattened and raw material shortages are improving.”

The only industry reporting slower deliveries in April is Real Estate, Rental & Leasing. The 11 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of April — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Educational Services; Public Administration; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Six industries reported no change in supplier deliveries.

Inventories
The Inventories Index contracted in April after two consecutive months of growth and eight months of contraction before that. The index indicated four months of growth from February to May 2022 and eight months of contraction from June 2021 to January 2022. The reading of 47.2 percent in April was a 5.6-percentage point decrease from the 52.8 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 41 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Continuing to run down inventory levels to a pre-pandemic level; we have excess personal protective equipment (PPE) at this time” and “Supply chain has stabilized, which is helping shorten lead times.” Also: “Companies are ordering material based on plans to avoid high inventories.”

The four industries reporting an increase in inventories in April are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in April — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Eight industries reported no change in April.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in April for the 71st consecutive month, with the index registering 59.6 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than the 59.5 percent recorded in March. The Prices Index continues to indicate movement toward equilibrium, with a 10th consecutive reading near or below 70 percent, following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent.

Fifteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of April, in the following order: Utilities; Other Services; Public Administration; Information; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Educational Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in prices for April is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index contracted in April for the second consecutive month after a previous stretch of 26 months of growth. The index registered 49.7 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the March reading of 48.5 percent. Of the total respondents in April, 48 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Receiving materials from overdue orders” and “Supply chain backlog easing domestically, and international orders are supplementing requirements.”

The five industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in April are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in April — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; and Construction. Seven industries reported no change in order backlogs in April.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in April after a contraction in March preceded by two months of expansion. The index indicated contraction from October to December 2022, with eight months (February-September 2022) of growth before that. The New Export Orders Index registered 60.9 percent in April, a substantial 17.2-percentage point increase from the 43.7 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 76 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The six industries reporting an increase in new export orders in April — listed in order — are: Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in April are: Management of Companies & Support Services; and Transportation & Warehousing. Ten industries reported no change in new export orders in April.

Imports
The Imports Index registered 51.3 percent in April, up 7.7 percentage points from March’s reading of 43.6 percent. The index has indicated expansion in seven of the last eight months, with the only contraction in March. Sixty-four percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The five industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of April are: Retail Trade; Information; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries that reported a decrease in imports in April are: Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Eight industries reported no change in imports in April.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index contracted in April after four consecutive months of growth preceded by four months of contraction. The index registered 48.9 percent, a 9-percentage point decrease from March’s figure of 57.9 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too low when correlated to business activity levels.

The 11 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in April — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Information; Other Services; Utilities; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The four industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in April are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of April 2023.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2021 GDP (released December 22, 2022), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.9 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.9 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM^® Advance^™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring May 2023 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, June 5, 2023.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management