Raisi’s victory secures control of Iran’s tough people

When Ebrahim Raisi contested Iran’s presidency in 2017, the conservative cleric’s smile was severely lost, failing to win over aspiring voters who had set their hopes on the republic’s nuclear deal to open the country.

Four years later, the collapse of the 2015 agreement that Iran signed with the world powers, a marked economic crisis triggered by US sanctions, disillusioned voters and the regime’s determination to return to exercising a hard line in office paved the way for his electoral victory with 62% of the vote.

But for many inside and outside the republic their victory bears the marks of a Pyrrhic victory.

More than half of voters chose not to vote on what the reformers described as a rare act of civil disobedience. The turnout of 48.8% was the lowest in the history of the Islamic republic and 3.7 million people chose to spoil their ballots, rather than voted for by any of Raisi’s rivals.

“The message of the election is that the dissident faction is much bigger than Raisi’s supporters,” said Hossein Yazdi, a reformist activist.

Many of those who stayed away from polling stations assumed the result was pre-ordered after authorities banned the presence of major reformist candidates. It was widely assumed that Raisi, the chief justice, was backed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, with hard-line people who used the election to regain control of all major branches of the state for the first time. once in almost a decade.

Analysts said Raisi’s victory increased his chances of succeeding Khamenei, 82, as the supreme leader on his death. But only if it can meet the challenges it inherits: an economy attacked by sanctions and coronaviruses and a polarized society vulnerable to unrest.

His supporters hope he can put an end to the factional struggles that have plagued the regime during President Hassan Rouhani’s second and final term, which ends in August. Unity within the theocratic system, which has competing centers of power, and a fluid succession are considered Khamenei’s priorities. These goals have become more urgent as the republic has endured its most turbulent period since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

“A nation, a team, a goal” was one of Raisi’s election slogans.

“I believe in Raisi because he is 100% in agreement with the leadership,” a regime expert said. “Parliament, the leadership, the judiciary: they will all be in line and work better.”

The catalyst for Iran’s recent unrest was Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear deal. It imposed crippling sanctions on the republic and people like Raisi, suffocating Iran’s ability to export oil and plunging it into recession.

The turmoil encouraged tough men and shattered the dreams of the 24 million Iranians who had voted for Rouhani in 2017 in hopes that the nuclear deal would initiate change and prosperity.

His disillusionment passed into Raisi’s hands. His conservative constituency heeded the calls of its leaders to vote, while the reformists stayed home.

Thus, although he technically won a landslide, he faces serious challenges without the strong popular mandate of his predecessors.

“Raisi has entered a game he will lose. In the eyes of the public, rightly or wrongly, his victory was predetermined, “said a reformist analyst. “That makes people angry.”

Others fear that the strong will try to marginalize and further oppress pro-democracy activists.

“Without a doubt, there will be the suppression of pro-democracy people,” said Yazdi, the activist.

There have long been concerns about Raisi’s human rights record. It now threatens to tarnish its credibility both at home and abroad, while Tehran is negotiating with world powers to reach an agreement to return the United States to the nuclear deal and lift sanctions.

President Joe Biden has said he will rejoin the deal if Iran fully complies with the deal. But the new government will be led by a man whom the Trump administration accused of overseeing executions, “torture and other inhumane treatment of prisoners” when it imposed sanctions on Raisi in 2019.

He is believed to have been linked to the execution of thousands of political prisoners when he was a state prosecutor in the late 1980s. He has not commented on this period.

Born into a clerical family, the path to the summit of Raisi became apparent five years ago when Khamenei appointed him custodian of the shrine of Imam Reza in his hometown of Mashhad, a powerful position that oversaw the holiest site. of Iran.

After Khamenei appointed him head of the judiciary, one of the main centers of hardline power in 2019, he used the post to launch a crusade against corruption that earned him praise, even among some of his critics. Others, however, saw the movement as a relaunch of their political ambitions.

During the election campaign, he offered few details about politics, but said national issues were his priority. He tried to appeal to Iranians who have suffered financial hardship, sometimes referring to their modest upbringing.

“Not only have I known poverty, I have tasted poverty,” was a phrase he repeated.

He has only made fleeting references to foreign policy and few expect significant changes, whether about Iran’s hostile relations with the US, its support for regional militant groups or the expansion of its missile program.

Unlike Rouhani, Raisi has had little exposure abroad, and regional policy and major security decisions are made by Khamenei.

Analysts add that he will likely be less openly radical than Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Iran’s last president. His first term was marked by drastic bombings against the United States and Israel and costly populist domestic policies that caused economic chaos.

But even conservatives acknowledge that Raisi faces a daunting mission.

“It is not unlikely that the term Raisi will be similar to that of Ahmadi-Nejad and Rouhani [chaotic last years]”Said Mohammad Mohajeri, a conservative analyst.” The ship of politics in Iran oscillates a lot. “