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Two doses of BioNTech / Pfizer or Oxford / AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccines offer good protection against symptomatic infection of the variant first identified in India, according to new data from the United Kingdom, which indicate a minimal reduction in effectiveness compared to the so-called Kent variant.
The BioNTech / Pfizer blow provided 88% protection against variant B. 1,617.2 found in India, a barely perceptible 93% drop provided against strain B.1.1.7 first identified in Kent in the south-east of England, according to data from Public Health England.
The two-dose protection of the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine was lower against both variants, with 66% for B.1.1.7 and 60% for B. 1.617.2.
However, officials warned that these figures are likely to be underestimated, signaling the subsequent release of second-dose AstraZeneca jab compared to the BioNTech / Pfizer shot, meaning the AZ cohort had been followed for a shorter period of time.
The figures will raise hopes that the UK government can end the country’s closure as planned on 21 June.
Other data have shown that the AZ vaccine takes several weeks to reach maximum effectiveness after the second dose, suggesting that its protective effect may not have been fully captured in the new data.
The relative drop in efficacy against B. 1,617.2 was similar for the two vaccines: 6% for the BioNTech / Pfizer vaccine and 10% for Oxford / AstraZeneca.
Matt Hancock, secretary of health and welfare, described the new tests as “innovative.” Referring to the number of people who had already received the two doses of vaccine, he added: “We can now be confident that more than 20 million people (more than 1 in 3) have significant protection against this new variant,” a number that grew by “hundreds of thousands” every day.
Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunization at Public Health England, said she and her colleagues hoped the vaccines would be even more effective in preventing hospitalization and death.
The severity and transmissibility of the Indian variant will be crucial in determining whether Boris Johnson is able to meet his “roadmap” to completely reopen the country. Officials report data daily to ministers and hold formal talks with Hancock and the prime minister at least once a week to update them, as Johnson weighs in on a final decision.
Data released Saturday provides more details on previous figures seen by the Financial Times.
Evidence so far indicates that B. 1.617.2 is less able to evade vaccine immunity than B.1.351, the variant first identified in South Africa, according to public health officials.
Data from English hospitals showed that of 2,889 genetically confirmed cases of B. 1,617.2, 104 had resulted in a visit to the emergency department, of which 31 spent the night in hospital and 6 died. These records have not yet fully matched the status of vaccination, so the breakdown of severe cases between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals is not known.
A separate PHE report released on Saturday showed consistent evidence that B. 1.617.2 is more transmissible than B.1.1.7.
But the modeling of British scientists has also shown that the growth patterns of the variant vary considerably between different parts of the UK. A public health official said that in London the changing proportions of B.1.1.7 and B. 1.617.2 seemed a substitution of one variant for the other without any global growth in numbers, but in other parts of England it was first identified the variant in India is growing fast enough to produce a global increase.
Dr. Robert Challen, of the University of Exeter, modeling the variant from India was presented to the government’s scientific advisory group, SAGE, said it was difficult to reach a definitive conclusion on what was driving the growth of the variant. Larger household sizes could play an important role, but “there could be other factors that are less easy to control, such as poor ventilation or denser housing,” he added.
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