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The Mets entered this series with a 70-39 record. The Reds entered this series with a 44-63 record. Astute observers will note that the former record is significantly better than the latter. I mention this not to bash our friends from Cincinnati, but to remind you of the simple but true fact that a good team (a team with a 70-39 record) must beat a bad team (say a team with a 44-63 record) more often than not.
Even with that simple recognition, it has to be said that what the Mets have done over the past three days has been impressive. They haven’t walked in their last 27 innings. Outscoring the Reds 21-5, their offense and offense were in equal measure. And as the Mets came off the heels of a big series win over their division rivals, they avoided the threat of a trap series, maintained their season-high lead, and continued to show why they are legitimate World Series contenders this year. Going to an away day before taking on the red-hot Phillies, the Amazons finished off the Reds with a 10-2 win.
TJ Zuch is the starter for the Reds this afternoon, making his major league debut in 2022 after bouncing between the majors and minors the past few seasons. TJ Zeuch has posted a 6.70 ERA in thirteen minor league appearances this year. He’s been better since the Reds signed him earlier this year, but the point remains: TJ Zuch is the kind of pitcher a good major league team can have no problem with. And get rid of what the Mets did. They scored early against him, with all three of the Mets’ first batters reaching base — the last on Pete Alonso’s RBI single. They scored another run in the inning on a sacrifice fly from Jeff McNeil, and that was still just the beginning. Three more runs came home in the second inning – two on a single by Francisco Lindor (who once tied the Mets record for RBIs in a single season with a shortstop with 81 and still has fifty games left in the season) and a single by folk hero Daniel Vogelbach. Then, for good measure, Tyler Naquin, the extra-base hitter since joining the Mets, added another run in the third inning when he hit a solo homer to right field to put the Soco Amazons up 6-0 against his former team. By the time Zook left the game after four innings—the Mets had done their usual job of holding the bat and seeing a lot of pitches in addition to putting up six runs against him—his only consolation was his 1 hitter. A team firing on all cylinders right now.
Taijuan Walker, on the other hand, came into today’s game trying to bounce back from a terrible start to the season. In his last game against the Braves (coincidentally, the last game the Mets lost), he didn’t get past the first inning, going seven innings and going eight without scoring a single. His start was a mostly successful comeback today as he welcomed the early runs the Mets gave up and denied the Reds any legitimate comeback attempts. The only meaningful blemish of the season came when he gave up two runs in the fourth inning—the first on Joey Votto’s RBI double, and later in the frame he surrendered a sacrifice fly to Jack Fraley. Other than that, walking perhaps a few too many (three in six innings, an uncharacteristically high number for him), Walker gave up just two runs and secured a quality start.
Back to the Mets offense for a second – what, you didn’t think their day was done when TJ Zuch left the game, did you? Reverend Sanmartin was the first pitcher out of the bullpen for the fifth inning, and while he recorded the first two innings, the Mets still scored a run against him thanks to the aforementioned extra-base hitting machine Naquin and an infield single from Luis Guillerme that threw him into the stands. Still, while Sanmartin probably wasn’t happy with the outing, it didn’t compare to the injury the Mets would inflict on Ian Gibaut when he went out for work in the following frame. He was greeted by the top of the order as he entered and the first five – yes five – batsmen of the innings arrived in some form or another. The big hits of the inning came from back-to-back doubles off the bats of Vogelbach (scoring two, Alonso was thrown at the plate on a slightly errant throw with too much force) and McNeil (scoring Vogelbach from second). Those hits made the score 10-2 and officially turned the game into a laugher.
The Mets didn’t score any more runs in the final two innings pitched, but that didn’t matter. Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams and Adonis Medina handled the last three innings without a hitch to finish things off and secure the win and effort. The Mets have won at least six straight games for the third time this season, and have an impressive 15-2 record over their last seventeen games. Their lead in the NL East will remain at seven or increase to eight depending on the outcome of tonight’s Braves game. And while it might not be all that impressive for the Reds to take four out of five of their division opponents, the Mets will face the same bad teams in the final fifty games of the season, and if they can handle those teams effectively, they’ll have the NL East in their hands. He could beat the 1986 record of 108 wins and give him a run for his money. All told, the team and fans have plenty to be excited about as they head into a well-deserved off day.
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Added chance to win.
What is WPA?
Big Mets winner: Francisco Lindor, +18.3% WPA
Big Mets loserBrandon Nimmo, -1.9% WPA
Mets pitchers+12.4% WPA
Mets hitters+37.6% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest gamePete Alonso RBI single in first, +13.8% WPA
Teh sux0rest game: Joey Votto RBI double in fourth, -4.1% WPA
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