Mandela Barnes leads GOP Sen. Ron Johnson by 7 points.

• Barnes leads Johnson 51%-44% in the Wisconsin Senate race, according to the new Marquette Act poll.
• Johnson is running for a third term, while Barnes hopes to unseat the GOP.
• The Wisconsin Senate race is one of the best Democratic caucus opportunities this year.

Wisconsin Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has a seven-point lead over Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in one of this year’s Marquette Senate races, according to a new poll by Marquette University Law School.

The poll shows Barnes has 51% support among registered voters in the Badger state, while Johnson has 44% support; Three percent of respondents were not sure which candidate they would support in November.

Among likely voters, Barnes led Johnson 52%-45%.

(A Fox News poll released Thursday showed Barnes leading Johnson 50%-46% among registered voters.)

In Wisconsin, both Barnes and Johnson perform well in the middle of their respective bases. But the swing state, which has supported Democratic candidates in seven of the past eight presidential elections, has been heavily skewed in other statewide races.

Among the pool of registered voters, Barnes received the support of 95% of Democrats, with 4% of party voters switching to support Johnson.

Johnson received the support of 92% of Republicans, 7% of GOP voters indicated that they would vote for Barnes.

Liberals gave Barnes a clear edge in the latest poll, over Johnson’s Democratic challenger 52%-38%, a significant change from June, when both men were tied at 41% support in this crucial voting bloc.

Voter enthusiasm is high among members of both parties. Eighty-three percent of Republicans indicated they would definitely vote this fall, compared to 82% of Democrats polled. Sixty-six percent of independents said they were confident they would vote in the upcoming election.

Last week, both Barnes and Johnson performed strongly in their respective Senate primaries.

Johnson has enjoyed strong support among basic conservatives and remains a political ally of former President Donald Trump — making him a no-brainer as the Republican Senate nominee. But Barnes spent most of the year locked in the first round of the tournament.

Until last month, Barnes’ top challengers were State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Larry, but all three dropped out of the race within two weeks, throwing their support behind the lieutenant governor — who has since been in control of the GOP in 2019. He is the managing partner of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in a state without a legislature.

Evers, who is running for a second term, leads GOP gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels 45%-43% among registered voters and 46%-44% among voters.

Barnes, a former state legislator, has gained a high level of visibility by touring the state to visit areas from his home state. Milwaukee to the countryside Bayfield County In his vice-governorship.

But even though he’s leading the polls, with 38% approval in the poll, it won’t be easy to topple Johnson, who defeated former three-term Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold in 2010 and 2016 and ran for re-election. Reelection is what could be a tough Republican midterm cycle.

Barnes has emphasized his plan to expand the child tax credit and said he supports the federal Voting Rights Act, while Johnson has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden on the economy and immigration and other issues.

The competition provides a great opportunity for both sides. Trump in 2016 They won the state in 2016, but Biden returned it to the Democrats in 2020 – underscoring his political competitiveness.

And in the evenly divided Senate, where Democrats control the upper chamber thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote, winning seats for their party would give them breathing room to pass bills without mandatory buyouts. From Middle Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kirsten Sinema of Arizona.

While Manchin played a key role in crafting the inflation-reduction legislation that included record funding for climate initiatives, the legislature also gutted the far-reaching Better Bucks Better Act, a social spending package now supported by a majority of Democrats. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Marquette Law School polled 811 registered voters from August 10 to August 15. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.