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New York State records twice the positivity rates of Covid-19 compared to a month ago, as weekend health experts showed concerns about a further rise in infections.
The state reported another 661 cases on Saturday, as the seven-day average positivity rate reached 0.79 percent, nearly double the record low of 0.4 percent set last month.
“Positivity is increasing due to an increase in the number of infections that are likely to occur among unvaccinated individuals,” Wafaa El-Sadr, an epidemiologist at the Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, told the Financial Times. “Positivity is higher in communities with lower vaccine uptake.”
Positivity rates in New York City and heavily populated Long Island already exceed 1%. However, hospital admissions fell by almost half during the same period.
El-Sadr said it is likely that the rate will continue to take into account the new variants circulating, “especially those that are more transmissible and if there is no more adoption of vaccines and as there are fewer restrictions in terms of collection of size and ease of masking recommendations ”.
Some health authorities have reduced the rising rate. Dave Chokshi, New York City health commissioner, said last week that positivity is no longer a critical metric.
But other medical experts disagree. “It is important as it tells us where the transmission is taking place and where there is a need to place more testing services and also where further efforts are needed to increase vaccine uptake,” El-Sadr said.
“With more vaccination there will be fewer infections and also less serious illnesses that require hospitalizations and fewer deaths among people with Covid-19,” he added.
According to research from Johns Hopkins University, areas of the U.S. with low vaccination rates should be preparing for an increase in infections. Localized hot spots arise, especially in the south, midwest, and west.
Rates have risen over the past two weeks in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
“I think we should prepare to see cases increase, especially in unvaccinated populations,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
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