Israel’s shadow conflict with Tehran is moving towards the light

A mysterious explosion that caused a blackout at Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities last weekend sparked suggestions from the Islamic Republic about the responsibility of its old enemy Israel.

Israel is usually tight after an inexplicable attack, either in November murder of a leading Iranian nuclear scientist, cyberattacks designed to curb Tehran’s enrichment capacity or attacks on Iran-linked ships traveling in international waters.

This time, however, in officially sanctioned leaks to local media and the American press, Israel claimed the credit last weekend’s attack.

His public embrace of a shadowy conflict with Tehran is aimed at complicating U.S.-led talks on Iran’s nuclear program that have given new life to Joe Biden’s presidency, officials told the Financial Times and Israeli, European, and American analysts.

“Israel wants to take a stand [over nuclear talks] more difficult for the US administration and send the message to the Iranians that we are stronger and that we do not need to hide when we do something, “said Eldad Shavit, an Israeli army reserving the colonel and former intelligence officer. Intelligence.

For Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s veteran prime minister, climbing is part of a ten-year rejection of the idea that Iran’s ambitions can be domesticated by diplomacy.

His position, according to people familiar with his thinking, is politically appropriate (Iran is a powerful symbol in Israeli politics) and driven by a deeper fear of the existential threat posed by Tehran. According to his assessment, Israel’s own undeclared covert nuclear weapons program, active since the 1970s and operational since the 1980s, is not a sufficient deterrent.

Netanyahu sacrificed his relationship with President Barack Obama by aggressively prosecuting Republicans opposed to the nuclear deal signed with world powers in 2015. Although he claimed Netanyahu when Donald Trump broke the deal in 2018 and imposed sanctions in Iran, the Israeli leader now fears a return to the Obama-era approach.

Netanyahu has authorized hundreds of airstrikes against Iran-related targets in Syria in recent years and, more recently, has stepped up covert actions. An assessment by the U.S. intelligence community this week described a pattern of “iterative violence between Israel and Iran.”

“If you put together all the things that Israel does, what they say. . . is that it returns to [the nuclear deal] it will not stop us, we do not believe in it and it will have to go further, “said Elliott Abrams, Iran’s envoy to the Trump administration. Israel believes that without” additional limits on the Iranian nuclear program or Iranian support for terrorist groups we will have to act in self-defense, “he added.

Israel has always said the deal with Iran is insufficiently broad because it does not include a brake on Iran’s search for ballistic missiles and its regional ambitions, including support for Shiite militia groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.

Netanyahu has also alleged that Iran always intended to renounce the deal, trumpeting a secret nuclear file that Mossad agents removed from a warehouse in Tehran.

“Israel has had a long-running war with Iran, even if it has been a low-profile secret war,” said Sima Shine, a former Mossad official and head of Iran’s program at the Institute. of National Security Studies. “Now, there is an interest in Israel to deter Iran and make them think we can penetrate anywhere whenever they endanger our national security.”

This week Iran responded to the blackout increasing its uranium enrichment up to 60%, its highest level in history. Armed grade uranium is enriched up to 90%.

“These are our answers to their harshness,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday, even as nuclear talks with world powers in Vienna resumed. “You wanted to leave your hands empty during the talks, but your hands are full.”

Iranian officials privately agree that Netanyahu’s intention is to derail the talks, while covert actions are delaying the nuclear program.

“Israel has a history of destroying Iraqi and Syrian nuclear programs and has a self-defined mission to do the same with that of Iran, but not through bombing but sabotage,” an Iranian defender said. “It’s sending a message to Americans that they don’t need to contain Iran during the talks, and therefore there is no need to lift sanctions.”

A U.S. National Security Council official said Washington and Tehran had a “common goal” of returning to the nuclear deal. The Vienna talks were the best way to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions and “address the full range of concerns we have with Iran’s activities in the region and beyond,” the person added.

Mike Eisenstadt, a former U.S. government military analyst who now worked with the Washington Institute think tank, argued that Israel’s covert actions could leverage Biden’s team. “It’s getting some daylight between the US and Israel and gaining time for negotiations,” he said.

European diplomats have expressed dismay at the title conflict and its ability to damage Vienna talks.

One described it as a “vicious circle” and said Iranian retaliation by moving to 60% enrichment “could seriously complicate things” in the Austrian capital. Another European official said there was “an actor who is not interested in the talks” and that he was trying to “undermine diplomatic efforts”, a clear reference to Israel.

But the official also expressed hope that other parties would want the nuclear deal to “get back on track,” including Iranian leaders who need to lift sanctions to reap economic benefits and alleviate domestic political pressures.

“In the end it will be about what kind of commitment will be found. . . and that they can sell as a victory and prove that they have not been the ones who have retreated, ”the official said.