Is there a new variant leading to the coronavirus catastrophe in India?

The bewildering speed with which the coronavirus has overflowed India’s health systems has caused a global alarm over the viral variant that emerged in the subcontinent.

He B. variant 1,617 some have been blamed for the rise in infections in India, which was recorded more than 350,000 confirmed cases only Monday, a county world record in a single day. Health experts believed the actual figure is likely to be much higher.

But scientists have urged no conclusions to be drawn on the extent to which the variant is solely responsible for the dizzying rise in cases in recent weeks, which caused 2,800 confirmed deaths in India on Monday alone. They said there was little evidence on the virulence and transmissibility of the Indian variant and pointed to other possible factors.

“Despite the alarming alarm of new cases with India’s second wave, there is simply not enough evidence to blame the variants,” said Nancy Jaser, an infectious disease analyst at GlobalData, an analysis firm that makes a monitoring of mutations.

When did the “Indian variant” evolve and to what extent is it widespread?

Variant B. 1,617 was first recorded in a global viral genome database in early October, just two weeks after the B.1.1.7 variant was originally detected in the United Kingdom. B. 1,617 has circulated in India since then and has spread internationally. About 20 countries have reported cases, mainly in travelers from India.

The problem is that, in relation to the size of the population, India has done very little at all genome sequencing this is the only reliable way to keep track of the evolution of variants. Therefore, the extent of the involvement of variant B. 1,617 in the Indian outbreak is unknown, although it accounts for approximately two-thirds of genomes reported from the country to the global GISAID database.

Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at Cambridge’s Wellcome Sanger Institute, noted that there were several variants in India, including the one that originated in Britain.

B.1.1.7, which scientists concluded is more transmissible, was the dominant variant in the Covid-19 wave in the UK in late 2020 and subsequently spread to continental Europe.

“There is some evidence of multiple epidemics overlapping in India, rather than a monolithic outbreak,” Barrett said. “Which makes sense since it’s a huge, heterogeneous country.”

Is B. 1,617 particularly virulent or transmissible?

The original variant of B. 1,617 has 13 genetic mutations that cause changes in the virus. These include two in the ear protein that has been linked in other variants (such as those identified in South Africa and Brazil) to increase transmissibility and ability to escape immunity conferred by vaccination or previous infection. But there is insufficient evidence from epidemiological studies or laboratory experiments to confirm that this is also the case in B. 1.617.

“You have to look at these things without panicking,” Barrett said. “The fact that [the variant that originated in India] it has not yet spread [widely] in the UK, though yes state on the British coast since February, suggests that it is not likely to be as transmissible as B.1.1.7. “

In addition to uncertainty, B. 1,617 is evolving and diverging over time, according to Sharon Peacock, director of the Covid-19 UK Genomics Consortium. Scientists have already detected three descending lineages (called B. 1.617.1, B. 1.617.2 and B. 1.617.3) with slightly different mutations. The practical implications of these strains are unknown.

References in the media and online to “double mutations” in variant B. 1,617 were “inaccurate, have no specific meaning and should be avoided,” Peacock added.

Will vaccines be less effective against B. 1,617 than against other variants?

Again, it is not clear. Vaccines developed to fight the original coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan in 2019 also appear to work against variant B.1.1.7 that emerged in the UK, although they appear to be less effective against variants that originated in South Africa and Brazil.

“It is not yet clear whether they will maintain their effectiveness against the new variants emerging in India. . . they are likely to have at least some effectiveness, ”said Peter English, a retired consultant in communicable disease control based in the UK.

Because only about 10% of India’s population has been vaccinated, “variants are not yet under strong pressure from vaccine immunity, so there is not much pressure for mutants to appear. of vaccine escape, “he added.

If the new variant is not the main cause of the Covid-19 crisis in India, what else could it be responsible for?

The evolution of the coronavirus crisis in India has also been driven by other factors, including its low vaccination rate and limited hospital capacity, as well as decisions made by leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the tolerance of large political and religious gatherings.

“A lot of attention has been focused on variant B. 1,617,” said Michael Head, a senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton in the UK. “But it is the mixture of susceptible populations that ultimately drives the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases.”

He noted the mass rallies in India in March and April associated with political campaigns, international cricket matches between India and England “with full stadiums and few wearing masks” and several large religious festivals, such as the Kumbh Mela, an event attended by millions of people.

The Hajj’s pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia and traditional New Year’s celebrations in China were reduced in size to a much greater extent than the Kumbh Mela, Head noted.

“It is possible that India has reduced its celebrations a bit, but millions have gathered for Kumbh Mela in different places and thousands of new cases of coronavirus are already confirmed in festivities,” he said.