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India’s catastrophic Covid-19 wave has not only beaten its ambitions to become the “pharmacy of the world”, but has also undermined the US plan for New Delhi to play a leading role in the fight against Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
President Joe Biden sees one “Quad” invigorated, a diplomatic and security initiative formed by the United States, India, Japan and Australia, as an integral part of its strategy to resist Chinese economic and military aggression.
But the coronavirus crisis in India and beyond ban on vaccine exports they have overshadowed the quartet’s first attempt to demonstrate that it can provide practical assistance to the region and is not just a military alliance against China. Instead, India’s failure has created an opportunity that China is seizing.
“The pandemic is a test of reality (there is no way to fix it) and has exposed the structural deficiencies of the Indian state in the crudest way we have ever seen,” Constantino Xavier told the Center for New Delhi Social and Economic Progress, a think tank.
Avinash Paliwal, at the Soas South Asia Institute at the University of London, said the crisis had exposed “the differential between the idea of India as a rising power” and its ability to meet its commitments.
“The image of India has advanced above itself,” he added. “But the world is realizing the limits of India as a rising power. Even Indians misinterpret their own abilities. ”
Washington had led a Quad vaccine initiative this meant that India would produce coups for Southeast Asia with financial and logistical support from Washington, Canberra and Tokyo.
New Delhi hailed the plan, presented at a summit in March, as a statement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s assertion that India was “ready to protect humanity” with locally done blows.
“It is a validation of our reputation as a reliable manufacturer of high quality vaccines and pharmaceuticals,” said Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s foreign secretary.
Three months later, India’s international position as a reliable supplier of vaccines – and a regional foil for China – is worn out, a victim of the Modi government not getting enough vaccines for their own people.
Faced with growing cases of Covid-19 and a growing outcry over the coups, New Delhi imposed a de facto ban on commercial exports of vaccines by the privately owned Serum Institute of India.
Its smaller neighbors, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, where New Delhi competes with China for influence, were left without supplies. The Covax plan, supported by the World Health Organization, created to ensure that vaccines reach developing countries, was also hit hard.
“The hype surpassed reality,” Ashley Tellis told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The presumption here was that India was that massive pharmaceutical machine that could produce these heart rate vaccines.”
Xavier said the suspension of the supply of vaccines to residents who had already paid the doses “obviously affected India’s reputation and reliability,” creating a vacuum that Beijing moving quickly to fill.
“China is coming out much stronger in the perspective of these countries,” he said. “If you can’t keep your own home in order, you won’t have much legitimacy to tell others how to handle their affairs.”
Washington insists that “necessary steps” are being taken to ensure the Quad can meet its goal of providing one billion vaccines to Asia by the end of 2022.
“Our discussions with our private sector partners and also with the government suggest that we are on track for 2022,” Kurt Campbell, Asia’s top White House official, said last week.
Despite the setbacks, Campbell said Washington still viewed the Quad as “deeply consistent for the 21st century,” with a face-to-face summit and a new infrastructure initiative, probably this year.
In the short term, India’s Covid problems will weigh on the alliance’s ability to address other issues of common concern, such as technology supply chains and cybernetics.
“Right now, it won’t focus much on what the Quad will do about technology or security because India will be distracted,” Lisa Curtis told the Washington-based Center for New American Security. “It’s just a hiccup we have to attribute to the unpredictable nature of the coronavirus.”
Evan Medeiros, of Georgetown University, said that “among Quad’s partners, India will always be the biggest challenge” because of its “limited capabilities” and its traditional orientation towards “non-alignment.”
But the death of 21 Indian soldiers in clash with Chinese troops along its shared border, it consolidated New Delhi’s commitment to the Quad as a source of support.
“This is a country that has shown a willingness to shed blood to challenge China,” Paliwal said. “Despite all its problems and dysfunctions, this is a very powerful signal.”
India’s allies will experience “an adjustment in expectations” of New Delhi’s capabilities, Paliwal said, but shared interests would ensure continued cooperation.
“The idea of the Quad, the practice of the Quad is going nowhere,” he said. “All allies will continue to wait for India to deliver.”
But doubts remain about India’s potential as a regional power. “‘Can India keep its promise?’ asked Tellis. “This is an issue that everyone is facing.”
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