How long will travel last?

Interstate travel isn’t easy these days. Fuel prices have increased. Airline tickets are sold out. Travel delays and flight cancellations are frequent.

It seems that many people are still traveling this winter. But with inflation, how long will the march for the middle class last?

Over the past year or so, the market has seen a 25 percent increase in airfare and a similar increase in car rentals, according to Mark Mills, chief procurement officer at Penn Procurement Services. “Now it’s too much. It’s influencing the decision to go or not,” he says.

“Even if things are starting to ease, that 25 percent is a big increase on an already large cost. If we don’t see further easing, more and more consumers will question whether they want to pay these rates or want — and should — a more cost-effective option,” Mills says.

Summer is the busiest time to travel, says Gad Alon, the Jeffrey A. Professor Keswin. “A lot of what we’re seeing right now is what some people call a ‘revenge drive,'” he says, of the pent-up demand the pandemic has created. Demand is still high, though, with inflation rising. Many summer travelers experience a general lack of pilots, insufficient staff to check baggage and long lines at the gate, Allon says.

“It’s an industry we all depend on, but we’re not willing to pay for good service,” says Alon. “We expect to have cheap service, we expect to have service, and we’re not willing to bear the consequences because it’s very difficult to operate an airline.”

Access to travel

Megan Ryerson, a transportation specialist in the Weitzman School of Design’s Department of Urban and Regional Planning, wants more options. “We need a downtown transportation strategy that focuses on equity,” she said.

In the year In 2018, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported that 9.9 million Americans did not live near an airport, interstate bus stop or train station, Ryerson said. Of these 9.9 million, 30% are from very low-income households, 20% are over the age of 65, and 6% do not have access to a car; All these are further hindering the ability to travel, she said.

Even those who live near a transit terminal may struggle with accessibility due to income, lack of car ownership or other issues, Ryerson says. “Many Philadelphians can typically make travel choices between flying, driving or taking the train, but if fares are high and one doesn’t have a car, those options are out of reach. High prices are a barrier to entry.”

Historically aviation was for the wealthy and corporations who could afford the fares. In the year The industry was deregulated in 1978, but the current boom in air travel could lead us back to the same problems, Ryerson said.

“In the 1940s, when President Truman dedicated JFK Airport in New York, he talked about how aviation can bring us together as people and bring us peace,” Ryerson says. “People today rely on the aviation system for that connection, to visit family or travel and experience new cultures.”

With rising airfares and price pressures, many Americans may not have those experiences. “We need to protect people’s ability to travel,” Ryerson says.

Travel imbalance

Racial and class barriers can limit free movement.

“We were, for many years, a community where poor people didn’t move,” said Mia Bay, director of the Roy F. Black: A History of Race and Resistance.” “They Don’t Have a Car. “They often live in areas with very limited public transportation.” If prices stay high, she says, it will accentuate the existing travel gap.

“Between the cost and the possibility of cancellations, flights don’t look very good, driving is becoming more expensive,” says Bay. There is also the issue of the ongoing pandemic. Bay traveled to Chicago earlier this summer. She says that both the plane and the airport were very crowded. “It was more of a zoo than usual. I’m not looking forward to getting on a plane again.”

As prices and inflation both increase, Alon expects demand to slow, especially as more people are experiencing overbooked flights. “Ultimately, that will put downward pressure on prices,” he says.

Gas prices remain high in August, but travel app Hopper projects that ticket prices will drop to $286 on average, which is 25% lower than ticket prices in May.

“The middle class is a big segment of the demand for airlines, so I’m hoping it will help reduce that demand,” says Mills.