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What is the best way to reach zero net emissions by 2050? The International Energy Agency, a Paris-based oil watchdog, has charted a path it says is “narrow but still achievable” if the world wants to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to almost zero and limit global warming to 1.5 ° C.
Achieving this goal, adopted by major economies such as the EU, the United States and the United Kingdom, would require a total transformation of the world economy over the next three decades.
According to the IEA scenario, this would include ending the sale of conventional gasoline cars by 2035, reaching 100% clean energy by 2040 and using heat pumps to meet at least half of all heating needs by 2045. .
While some industry executives and major energy consuming countries have considered the route to be out of touch with the reality of current consumption patterns, it shows the total reform of the energy system that would be needed.
Total energy consumption by 2050 would be lower than it is currently due to efficiency improvements, although the global economy will be 40% larger than it is now.
Most of the energy would come from renewable sources, with the IEA forecasting that solar energy will increase 20 times and wind energy 11 times by 2050. Electricity use would also grow. Today, approximately 20% of total energy consumption is electricity. By 2050, this would increase to 50% in this scenario.
An increase in the corresponding expenditure on electrical infrastructure would be required. Total capital investment in the energy sector is expected to increase to $ 5 billion a year, of which investment in transmission and distribution networks would rise to $ 820 million annually by 2030, from $ 260 billion. nowadays.
Fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas would play a very limited role by 2050 in this scenario. Coal would be reduced by up to 4% of global energy supply, mainly from power plants equipped to capture carbon dioxide before it is released.
Oil and gas would play a slightly larger role in 2050, but not much, according to the IEA. Demand for oil would fall by 75%, reaching 24 million barrels per day and demand for gas would fall by 55% depending on the agency’s scenario.
The IEA report says a new exploration of oil, gas or coal supplies would not be necessary, as producers would only focus on their existing assets. In particular, this means that the Middle East will produce a growing share of the world’s oil supply over time. As a result, Opec’s control over the oil market would grow to 52%, the highest level in history.
The IEA was founded in 1974 by OECD oil-consuming countries, concerned about access to supplies following the Arab oil embargo that pushed up prices. Its mandate has subsequently evolved to consider all forms of energy security.
The IEA report is clear that none of this will happen without major policy changes and increased energy investment. People will have to change their lifestyle, he says, with about 4% of projected emissions reductions resulting from behavioral changes, such as making fewer long-haul flights.
Policy makers will also need to use all the tools at their disposal, including the price of carbon dioxide emissions. As the price of oil falls in the net zero scenario, the price of carbon dioxide will rise, according to IEA forecasts, especially in developed countries.
Governments will also need to accelerate their plans to reduce emissions. Existing government climate plans, which were also examined by the IEA in this report, will only reduce emissions by 35% by 2050.
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