Get to the bottom of Wuhan’s laboratory theory

Since the first weeks of the pandemic, rumors have been swirling that the coronavirus may have escaped from a lab in the Chinese city of Wuhan. Now the theory is being taken seriously again. President Joe Biden last week ordered U.S. intelligence services to investigate if Covid-19 “arose from human contact with an infected animal or from a laboratory accident” and report it within 90 days. It would be much better if China finally allowed unrestricted access to international researchers, however unlikely, to seek the answer.

A leak from a laboratory is only a hypothesis, based entirely on circumstantial evidence, but plausible. The Huanan seafood market in Wuhan where Covid-19 was initially detected is ideal for the “zoonotic transfer” of a virus across the species barrier: wild animals were in close contact with each other and with humans. However, it is also just 12 km from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which houses a large collection of coronaviruses; another institute, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is even closer. Leaks in the laboratory have previously caused outbreaks of disease.

Determining the truth is not about sharing the blame. Is vital to understanding the origin of a disease that has caused the death of at least 3.5 million people if we want to prevent similar outbreaks in the future. If zoonotic overflow was the cause, knowing the mechanisms could determine where changes in animal handling and interaction with humans are needed and help design a global system. early warning system of future risks. If the virus came from a laboratory – and was modified in some way – lessons can be learned about the transparency and security of biorinternational research.

However, even the formidable resources of American spy agencies may be insufficient to give a sure answer. And in a world of “post-truth,” not only Beijing, but many other countries will reject any American claim that has discovered the Chinese origin of the coronavirus as an information war.

Instead, the world needs comprehensive scientific research conducted by credible experts chosen by a multilateral body and with access to all the data, people, and locations it needs. Despite all its difficulties during the pandemic, the best body to deal with it is the World Health Organization. In fact, the laboratory escape hypothesis has resurfaced largely as a result of an inconclusive WHO investigation that was hampered by China’s lack of full cooperation. The WHO march report the completed transfer of a bat, through an intermediate host, was “likely very likely,” and a laboratory incidentextremely unlikely”.

Although, while researchers found a Covid-like disease in late 2019 in some people associated with the Huanan market, the Sars-Cov-2 virus has never been found in an animal, so the source remains unknown. . Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, said there was an assessment of a possible laboratory leak was not “extensive enough”.

It seems that Beijing prefers the source to remain a mystery. China pressured WHO researchers to keep open the possibility of the virus reaching Wuhan with frozen food; Chinese media have pushed the idea that it was imported from other parts of the world. Donald Trump hardly made it easier for Beijing to be more open in insisting that it would “make China pay” for the virus, even though Biden has abandoned that language.

In his professed support for free trade in the face of Trump-era protectionism, and in his vaccine diplomacyhowever, Beijing has tried to represent itself as a responsible global citizen. He may fear losing his face if it is conclusively proven that he is the source of Covid. In fact, China would gain respect if it moved, too late, to transparency and cooperation.