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At the top of a lighthouse on a deserted promontory, Ali Hassan Ali points to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to war-ravaged Yemen. Then, behind him, to war-torn Ethiopia. Then, to his right, the troubled Somalia. Finally, to his left in Eritrea, a dictatorship involved in the Tigray conflict next door.
“This is a point of peace, of trade,” said the greedy man in charge of keeping the lights on. Djibouti, a former French colony with a population of just 1 million, is an uncommon point of stability in a highly strategic location, at the southern end of the Red Sea, en route to the Suez Canal, the backbone of world trade. .
About a third of all daily shipments in the world pass through the northeastern shore of Africa, where water narrows to a point of shock off Yemen.
With economic growth of up to 7% forecast this year, double the African average, according to the finance ministry, helped by strong Chinese investment in ports, free trade zones and a coastline-free railway line to Ethiopia. , Djibouti will be one of the fastest growing economies in the continent.
Headquartered at five naval bases, including China’s first overseas military base since 2017, its importance is geopolitical and economic. It’s about “location, location, location,” said Aboubaker Omar Hadi, chairman of the Djibouti Ports and Free Zones Authority and one of the country’s most influential men.
Whispers, spies and espionage
“They are both, location i stability, “said Nima Dirieh Warsama, chief executive of ATD-GIE, a group in the transportation industry. This stability is aided by French tanks, American helicopters, Chinese soldiers and Japanese ships, which are a common sight because the area surrounding Djibouti is a “powder keg,” a Western military official in the country said.
Still, the government thrives on its role as a neutral host of world powers, sometimes easing tensions between Americans and Chinese, in what a senior government official called “a return to the Cold War.” , where “Djibouti is absolutely an epicenter.” “What gives Djibouti this effervescence is the fact that the great powers are here, so that means it is safe,” the official added.
The French have trained 11,000 regional soldiers, mostly Djibouti, and are protecting the country’s airspace with Mirage fighter jets. “Here we really are a guarantee of security,” said General Stéphane Dupont, the commander of the base that houses 1,500 French soldiers. Other powers, such as the US, agree. Djibouti is the backbone of a global coalition against al-Shabaab, a Somali terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda, as well as the now-diminishing threat of piracy.
But for some, the arrival of China, which made $ 853 billion in investments between 2005 and 2019 and owns 30% of Djibouti’s total debt, is disturbing. “It’s a tsunami, it’s really a tsunami,” a senior Western official in Djibouti said, referring to the Chinese presence ranging from investments to soldiers. “They are not enemies, but they are not friends either. And we have to live together. “
Djibouti politicians, American contractors and French officials gather in the Gare cafeteria to talk to whisper about what the Chinese military can do to its concrete fortress. It is the first overseas military base in China, which protects merchant ships. It has a dock that could support “China’s aircraft carriers in the future,” the top U.S. commander in Africa, Gen. Stephen Townsend, he said recently.
“Djibouti is in a vital geostrategic region where all members of the international community have a personal interest,” Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf said. “We recognize that there is serious economic competition between the major powers,” he added, but stressed that his country “does not fall under any sphere of influence.”
In fact, the country’s finance minister, Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh, said: “It is really false this idea that China takes over Djibouti completely, it is a myth.”
Many agree that the atmosphere of the port city, where most of the population lives, resembles that of Casablanca, the film about intrigue and romance in World War II. “Everyone takes a look,” a senior foreign diplomat quipped.
“We know very well that the Chinese want to spy. It doesn’t mean we don’t do the same, “said a Western military officer stationed in Djibouti.” We’re all friends here, but we all like to know what the other person is doing. ”
Democratic erosion or 99% support?
Many say another key factor in stability is President Ismail Omar Guelleh, 73. He has run the country since 1999 and is widely described as a shrewd and intelligent leader of what critics call a centralized autocracy.
“It’s the only game in town,” a non-African diplomat said. “There has been an erosion over time on the democratic front.”
Guelleh is credited with making Djibouti a base for both cargo shipments and the foreign military. The size of the economy went from $ 536 million when he took office to $ 3.3 million in 2019. His portrait is ubiquitous in every store, office and building. Last month, he won a fifth term with 99% of the vote.
Opposition’s main rival, newcomer Zakaria Ismail Farah, said “99% has never been in the world except in a country of extreme dictatorship.” Foreign powers in Djibouti, he said, “have sacrificed Djibouti’s democracy in the name of regional stability.”
Alexis Mohamed, the president’s chief adviser, dismissed Farah’s criticism, stressing that there are already discussions about Djibouti’s “political future” after Guelleh, as this is legally the president’s last term.
The president has “managed to preserve peace and social cohesion in Djibouti, in a region where there are tensions in Ethiopia and Somalia,” he said. “God has not given us oil,” he added, echoing Ali at the lighthouse, “but he has given us a strategic point.”
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