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Ebrahim Raisi, a conservative cleric, was predicted for an overflowing victory in the Iranian presidential election that would give regime leaders complete control over all branches of the state for the first time in nearly a decade.
Raisi’s two main rivals conceded on Saturday and congratulated the 60-year-old, who many Iranians believe is the favored candidate of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader.
Official results of Friday’s vote, in which Raisi ran against Mohsen Rezaei, a Conservative general and sole reformist candidate Abdolnaser Hemmati, were expected later Saturday.
The clergyman’s victory means hard supporters, who won a large majority in last year’s parliamentary elections and control justice and the army, are now the most powerful since 2013. The reformists, who favor a greater commitment to the west, have been pushed to the sidelines. .
The elections were held at a critical time for the Islamic Republic and the region. The Biden administration is trying to ease tensions in the Middle East, which ignited with Donald Trump’s decision in 2018 to unilaterally withdraw the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran and impose waves of sanctions on the nation .
Raisi has said his government will continue negotiations with the other signatories to the agreement: the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China.
But the toughest will want to negotiate on their own terms, as the second and final term of President Hassan Rouhani’s centrist government will end in August. The election of Raisi, who has led the judiciary for the past two years and was the subject of sanctions by the Trump administration in 2019, as he addressed dozens of senior regime officials, runs the risk of complicating these conversations.
Raisi’s victory also means Iran is more unlikely to be able to curb its support for militant groups across the region or curb its extensive missile program.
President Joe Biden has vowed to rejoin the nuclear deal if Tehran complies with the deal again. But his administration is under pressure from U.S. politicians, Israel and Washington’s Arab partners to take a hard line on Iran’s support for militias and its missile program.
Raisi has said domestic policies would be his priority. He faces the daunting task of reviving an economy paralyzed by the coronavirus sanctions and pandemic, causing social pressure and a deep sense of disillusionment with the theocratic system among many Iranians.
Society’s schisms were underscored by the low turnout expected for the presidential election.
Iranian media reported that conservatives voted in large numbers. But Iranians who want reforms showed their disillusionment with the theocratic system by staying at home in what pro-democracy activists described as an act of civil disobedience.
Low turnout would undermine the popular legitimacy that Iranian leaders are trying to claim in the elections at a time when the gap between the regime’s ideology and policies and the aspirations of the youth population is widening.
Conservative analysts said Raisi would probably be closer to Khamenei’s thinking than Rouhani, who wanted to use the nuclear deal to re-engage with the West before Trump imposed his “maximum pressure” campaign.
Unlike his predecessor, Raisi will not try to diminish the role of the powerful revolutionary guards, who dominate military operations abroad and control an extensive economic empire at home.
“Raisi’s background in the judiciary tells us that he is obedient to those above, but very strict with his minors,” a reformist politician said.
“Two good years in the judiciary are similar to a period of pink commitment. From now on it is like after the marriage that entails all the realities and disappointments ”.
Raisi has made few comments on foreign policy and said he will focus on increasing Iranian industrial production and easing economic pressures on Iranians.
Conservatives hope it will bring unity to the ruling system after Rouhani’s final term was hit by bitter internal clashes. Trump’s hostility toward Iran encouraged leaders who blamed the centrist government and its reformist advocates for trusting the U.S..
But reformers are concerned that the victory of hardliners will exacerbate the country’s problems and remove any lingering hope of gradual reform.
“Reformers must prepare for a tough political era. . . and not succumb to that result, ”said Abbas Abdi, a reformist commentator.
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