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According to the latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency, the world is on track to record the second largest increase in energy-related carbon emissions in 2021, driven by a resurgence of coal use in Asia.
Global energy-related CO2 emissions could increase by 1.5 billion tonnes this year, to 33 billion tonnes this year, the largest annual rise since 2010, the IEA said on Tuesday. This would reverse 80% of the decline recorded in 2020, when the pandemic depressed demand, with emissions rising to below the 2019 high.
The recovery of coal used to generate electricity in China was expected to feed much of this year’s increase, the IEA said.
“This is a terrible warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate,” said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director. He called on world leaders to commit to “clear and immediate action” at this week’s US-led climate summit.
The IEA warned in March that it was global energy-related carbon emissions were higher in December than they had been in the same month of 2019, as polluting activity again caused coronavirus blockages, a finding Birol said should serve as a “blatant warning” to policymakers .
Global carbon emissions were almost 6% lower in 2020 than the previous year, but this trend began to reverse rapidly as economies began to reopen.
On Tuesday, the IEA predicted that the use of all fossil fuels would grow “significantly” in 2021, with coal and gas likely to have higher demand in 2021 than in 2019. Overall, demand is expected. energy will increase by 4.6 percent in 2021, compared to a 4% drop in 2020, driven by emerging markets.
Coal demand is expected to grow 4.5% this year to near 2014, largely due to fuel use in Asia and China in particular, according to IEA findings. . The forecasts were based on national data and real-time analysis of economic growth trends and energy projects under development.
Coal use in the US and the EU was also on track to increase, although it is likely to remain below coronavirus crisis levels, the IEA said.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Monday that an “absolute priority” should be to ensure that no new coal-fired power plants are built and that coal is completely eliminated in all countries by 2040. In the absence of urgent action, the World would not meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 ° C above pre-industrial levels, he said.
Speaking to Guterres, World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said there was already a “20% chance” that the world would warm to 1.5 ° C in the next five years. temporarily “.
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“It simply came to our notice then [1.5C] temporarily, ”he said.
The expected increase in fossil fuel use in 2021 would occur even with record annual increases in the amounts of energy generated by both solar and wind energy, the IEA said on Tuesday. Renewable energy sources are expected to generate about a third of the world’s total electricity this year.
Oil would likely remain below the 2019 high, as the aviation sector had not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels, the IEA said.
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