China watches Afghanistan anxiously as the United States withdraws

It is not without reason that Afghanistan is known as the “cemetery of empires.” The ancient Greeks, Mongols, Mughals, British, Soviet Union, and more recently the United States have launched vainglorious invasions that saw their ambitions and the blood of their soldiers spilled into the sand.

But after each imperial retreat, a new tournament of shadows begins. With the The US is withdrawing from Afghanistan, China casts an anxious glance at the western border and holds talks with a rising Taliban, the Islamist movement that was ousted from power in 2001.

The burning questions are not only whether the Taliban can fill the power vacuum created by the withdrawal of the United States, but also whether China, despite its long policy of “non-interference” – it can become the next superpower try to write a chapter in the history of Afghanistan.

Talks with the Taliban and look at Xinjiang

Beijing has held talks with the Taliban, and while details of the talks have been kept secret, government officials, diplomats and analysts from Afghanistan, India, China and the United States said they were concretizing crucial aspects of a broad strategy.

An Indian government official said China’s approach was to try to rebuild Afghanistan’s destroyed infrastructure. in cooperation with the Taliban channeling funds through Pakistan, one of Beijing’s strongest allies in the region.

“We can assure that China will fund the reconstruction of Afghanistan through the Taliban through Pakistan,” the official said. “China is Pakistan’s portfolio.”

Another diplomat from the region said, “China at the request of Pakistan will support the Taliban.”

The person added that Beijing insisted that the Taliban limit their ties to groups that he said were made up of Uighur terrorists in exchange for that support.

The groups, which Beijing calls the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, are an essential part of China’s security calculation in the region. The UN Security Council estimated that ETIM groups added 3,500 fighters last year to some groups, some of which were headquartered in a part of Afghanistan bordering China.

Both the UN and the United States designated the ETIM as terrorists in 2002, but Washington dropped his ranking last year. China has accused ETIM of committing multiple terrorist acts in Xinjiang, its northwestern border region, where Beijing is located. maintained approximately 1m uigur and other minority peoples in internment camps.

In a clear indication of Beijing’s determination to counter the ETIM, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged his counterparts in the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan this year to cooperate. to destroy the group.

“We should resolutely repress the ‘three forces of evil’ [of extremism, terrorism and separatism] including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, ”Wang said in May.

Ensure the belt and road initiative

Wang added that the importance of this task stemmed in part from the need to protect “large-scale activities and projects” to create a “Safe Silk Road.” The Silk Road is one of the terms used by Chinese officials to refer to the Silk Road Belt and Road Initiative, President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy signing strategy to build infrastructure and gain influence abroad.

An important part of China’s motivation to seek stability in Afghanistan is to protect existing BIS projects in Pakistan and Central Asian states, while it may open up Afghanistan to future investments, analysts said.

Qian Feng, research director at the National Strategy Institute at Beijing Tsinghua University, said China and Afghanistan had shown strong political will toward expanding cooperation under the BIS. If stability were achieved in Afghanistan, “it would certainly bring great comfort to the cargo flow between China and Eurasia,” Qian said.

Fan Hongda, a professor at the Institute for Middle East Studies at Shanghai International University, said China would more actively support efforts to ensure political stability in Afghanistan.

“While China has long been extremely cautious in sending military forces abroad, if it relies on a UN resolution, China could join an international peacekeeping team to enter in Afghanistan, ”he said.

“With the continued turmoil, Afghanistan could easily become a cradle for the growth of Islamic extremism, which would affect stability in Xinjiang to some extent.”

Still, both ambitions can be unleashed if Afghanistan returns to widespread violence after the withdrawal of American and NATO forces. According to diplomats in the region, the prospects for Kabul’s ability to maintain stability were bleak.

The Afghan government was able to maintain a measure of stability largely due to the superiority of U.S. air support. Drones, cannons, helicopters and heavy air artillery were unmatched by the Taliban.

But when the U.S. leaves, that advantage will evaporate, despite the U.S. promise that was reported last week to supply 37 Black Hawk helicopters to the Afghan government.

“In 34 provinces, the Afghan army only has the means to fight 40% of the area without US air support,” a diplomat said.

Sean Roberts, associate professor at George Washington University and author of The war against the Uighurs, said China’s imperative to create land trade routes to Europe and the Middle East could inevitably lead to Afghanistan’s internal strife.

“Afghanistan is a perfect example of how it will be increasingly difficult for China to avoid getting entangled in local political and security issues in regions where it has substantial economic interests,” Roberts said.

Additional reports from Emma Zhou in Beijing