The exodus from London leaves few schools of pupils

Schools in London are facing budget cuts and possible closures, as the pandemic and Brexit have accelerated the fall in the number of pupils who were already pressured by falling birth rates.

The combination of EU migrants Returning in its home countries and families moving away from the capital, which are less attractive due to coronavirus blockages, it is undermining the funding model for schools, which is based on the number of students.

The number of pupils in state-funded primary schools in England in the academic year that began in September 2020 fell for the first time since 2010, by 0.3% year-on-year.

But detailed admissions data from the Financial Times for London suggest the capital is suffering much sharper declines, with a 6.7% year-on-year drop in applications for primary school places this September to date. January limit throughout the city.

This equates to 6,546 fewer children enrolled in the capital’s reception classes in September, which meant a potential reduction in funding of £ 34 million according to the advice of London, the body representing local authorities in the capital.

Data from two other English cities suggest that the drop in student numbers for the next academic year is not limited to London.

Birmingham City Council figures show an 9.5% annual drop in reception venues this September, while in Bristol the figure was 6.8 percent.

The Birmingham council noted a gradual drop in the birth rate, but said there was “early evidence” of the drop in applications “mainly due to the reduction in net migration to the city”. Bristol declined to comment on the drop in applications.

A breakdown of the capital’s data, from the Pan-London Admissions Board, showed a double-digit decline in some areas. All 32 districts have seen a drop in applications, with the City of London being by far the smallest local authority, with one exception.

London councils said in a statement that they hoped lower birth rates would start reaching the number of pupils, but had not predicted the sharp falls for next year.

He blamed the reduction in applications in part on EU citizens Returning at home after Brexit. It was also called the “double blow” of successive coronavirus and government blockades stamp duty holidays it had led to the relocation of families out of the capital.

“While we don’t know how big the recent fall is, we know it’s real to some extent,” the London Councils said. “Everything has an impact in terms of school funding. . . If a school is not able to fill a classroom, then it will have to think about reducing staffing and other costs. “

Haringey, north London, was the hardest hit: applications fell 14.1% year-on-year, followed by Enfield by 13.5% and a 10.2% drop in Hammersmith and Fulham. .

Most municipalities contacted by the FT blamed part of the fall on the declining birth rate: Camden, for example, has seen a 20% drop since 2012.

Haringey also noted “an apparent migration from London of families with children as a result of the Covid pandemic.” Hammersmith declined to comment further and Enfield did not respond to several requests for comment.

The reduction in the number of students has left some schools in an unsustainable financial situation. Consultations are underway on the future of St Mary Magdalen Primary School in Lewisham, while Carlton Primary Schools in Camden and Shapla and St Matthias Primary Schools in Tower Hamlets will close this year.

“Unfilled school places have an immediate cost to schools thanks to a reduction in their budgets,” Lewisham said.

Along with falling births, Camden council blamed the high costs of living in London and said it was working with schools to tackle “major funding challenges”.

Tower Hamlets said there were “multiple factors” influencing the figures. “As a responsible local authority, we conduct periodic reviews of school sites at the local level in response to population change,” he said.

Even in the least affected municipalities, the fall in the number of new students will reach the budgets. Ed Davie, a member of Lambeth’s children’s and youth council cabinet, where applications for primary school places have fallen 3.6% from last year, said only 86% of places were filled in September.

This would mean a drop in funding that could force principals to cut costs and staff, including teaching assistants and cleaners. “It costs the same to lead a class of 23 as a class of 30,” he said.

London councils said late applications could still offset some of the falls before the start of the new school year, although most London councils contacted by the FT said the figures had not changed. But the umbrella body warned that the long-term trend of falling figures would mean many municipalities would still have to face a reduction in funding.

For example, in Hackney, the year-on-year drop of 12.6 per cent in applications for primary school places reported in January had been reduced to 1.5 per cent just because of late applications, the council said.

But last academic year, 14.4 percent of the district’s reception places were left unoccupied, and in two areas, reception classes were 75% full, according to council documents.

The documents show that the council was committed to “minimizing” school closures and class mergers during the pandemic, but warned that surplus sites meant it was “about to consider and undertake these measures in the near future. “.

Hackney’s deputy mayor, Anntoinette Bramble, said school funding had been hit by a drop in student numbers that was falling back to 2010 levels and government cuts.

“The effect of falling student registries on school budgets has been exacerbated by the 9% reduction in real terms for government funding per student since 2010,” he said. “We are working closely with schools to meet this budget challenge.”

The government said it was working with local authorities “to support them in their planning to ensure that the supply of school places matches the demand”.