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Here’s a question for all you busy executives, deal makers, and time-starved travelers out there. If you could save three hours on a supersonic jet to fly from London to New York, but knew your trip would generate two to eight times more carbon than a conventional plane, would you?
Two weeks ago, American Airlines put down an undisclosed deposit for 20 supersonic jets to be built by a Colorado start-up. Boom founder Blake Scholl believes there are enough of you to fill “thousands, if not hundreds, of these planes.” not sure.
20 years ago, when the Concorde used twice as much fuel as a 747 jumbo to carry a quarter of the passengers, companies didn’t have to measure their carbon footprint. Today, businesses are under pressure from investors, regulators and customers to reduce their climate impact.
Even assuming Boom overcomes the noise problem, supersonic travel will be one of the least green and most expensive options for air travelers.
Dan Rutherford, director of aviation programs at the International Clean Transportation Council, calculates that a flight on a boom-like supersonic jet fueled by conventional jet fuel would produce eight times the carbon emissions of an economy-class passenger, or twice as much as a passenger in a Saxon plane. Given to someone in the business class.
Boom says his Overture will fly on 100 percent sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) — even though it doesn’t yet have an engine. According to a study by ICCT and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the cleanest SFA can generate up to 24 percent less carbon emissions per seat kilometer than a conventionally fueled aircraft. But that study concluded that the non-carbon climate effect of supersonics is caused by agents such as nitrogen oxides and water vapor due to the higher altitudes at which these aircraft fly.
Moreover, if the Overture can fly over the SAF, so can other aircraft. All conventional jet engines are capable of flying on 100 percent sustainable fuel, with a few minor modifications. 50 percent are banned by regulators.
Boom’s sustainability question assumes there is enough affordable green fuel to keep the plane flying in 2029. Eta Aviation, the airline industry’s trading arm, estimates that it uses 450 billion liters of fuel a year. Current investment plans suggest 5bn SAF production by 2025, Eta said. It states that effective government incentives could take this to 30 billion by 2030 – still far short of the industry’s needs. That shortage means SAF could be more expensive than jet fuel for a while.
Conventional fuel accounts for 30 percent of an airline’s operating costs. So why do carriers use a more expensive alternative to modern subsonic aircraft that consumes more fuel? My guess is they won’t. Even if a carrier were to go down that route, tickets would have to be sold at such a high price that only a few would be able to afford them.
According to John Strickland, an aviation consultant involved in network planning for British Airways Concorde, high fuel costs and low market prices contributed to Concorde’s grounding in 2003. “We can make it work on the London to New York route by getting premium traffic,” he said. A very small number of people, such as business executives, businessmen, and a “few famous people,” did repeat business.
Since then, the economics of supersonic travel haven’t changed much—but a lot has. For starters, thanks to the post-Covid rise of video conferencing, the outlook for business travel isn’t what it was when the boom began in 2014. And those travelers who once valued frugality over cost must now weigh the environmental impact of their trip.
“A leading mergers and acquisitions attorney used the Concorde often when clients said, ‘We don’t want you to use it . . . it’s bad for our carbon footprint.’
Flying faster than the speed of sound is an interesting concept. But business travelers must carefully consider the damage to their reputation and the environment that saving a few hours of travel time can do.
peggy.hollinger@ft.com
Climate capital
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