Fall travel season: What to expect when it comes to deals, delays – National

After a summer marked by long lines, lost luggage and flight disruptions, experts say the fall could see savvy travelers snap up cheap airfare deals before the end of the year.

But these travel woes are likely to persist if staff shortages persist and unseasonably high demand traps airports in their usual slow decline.

Global News spoke to travel and aviation experts about when things get busy at Canadian airports and how travelers can find the best deals on airfare.

Here’s what they say.

Canadian travelers passing through hubs like Toronto’s Pearson International Airport this summer have been frustrated by long lines to clear customs and security, or delays or cancellations to their flights.

Staff shortages have been identified as a major cause of headaches as the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions has prompted airlines and travel services to scale back a busy summer travel season.

“The airlines were very, very concerned about getting people to fly,” said John Gradek, director of the aviation management program at McGill University.

“They have put several flights up for sale. They sold out very quickly and suddenly people showed up. … and guess what? We didn’t have enough people at the airport.”

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In response to the system’s shock, Air Canada has reduced its summer flight schedule and most airlines, as well as federal agencies that oversee customs and security at airports, are ramping up staffing levels to process flights and expedite processing times.

Transport Canada said in an update last week that 86 per cent of flights left the country’s top four airports between August 8 and 14 within one hour of their departure time, up from 75 per cent in the first week of July and 92 per cent pre-pandemic.

That same week, 87 per cent of passengers at those four airports went through security in 15 minutes or less, up from 79 per cent in the first week of July, according to Transport Canada.

For that week in August, 42 aircraft were held on the Pearson tarmac, compared to a peak of 373 aircraft during the last week of May.

Air Canada, meanwhile, said in an update last week that it expects to operate flights at 79 percent of its pre-epidemic capacity in the third quarter of the year.

Company CFO Amos Kazaz told a Raymond James conference in New York City on Tuesday that the airline had a “big week” last week in terms of cancellations, delays and baggage deliveries, and he expects similar performance for the rest. year.

“We don’t expect to see this level of disruption in 2023. We think progress will continue,” he said.

Gradek said there has been “some improvement” since the peak of the problems in June and July, but there is still a “huge gap” between the service Canadians typically expect and what they get at airports.

“In that respect, it’s still a question mark, are the airports really able to flex their muscles and handle the volume expected on Labor Day?”

Experts and stakeholders are divided on whether to see a sharp drop in demand in the fall or whether summer travel growth will continue during the usual slow season.

September and October mark a reduction in travel as children return to school and parents return to work.

But Pearson spokeswoman Tori Gass said the busy airport is not expecting the “typical downturn” after Labor Day this year.

“People are still traveling. There is still a pent-up desire for that. Maybe people are putting off their summer trips and going in the fall now. So that’s what we’re preparing for,” she told Global News.

Leslie Keiter, who runs the Travel Lady agency in Calgary, Alta., said that while she usually sees a summer lull for new bookings, demand has been “relentless” over the past few months, especially for people booking “last minute” and hoping to get flights in the coming weeks.

“The level of demand when it comes to booking travel is completely unusual for us in the travel industry as a whole,” she says.

Travel expert Jennifer Weatherhead told Global News Morning on Wednesday that if Canadians plan to travel in September and October, the safest bet is to arrive at the airport early and expect delays.

“As a commuter, I would prepare for those lines to be there until the fall,” Weatherhead said.

Along with weakening demand, continued inflationary pressures in addition to seasonal changes will limit demand for fall travel by Canadians, Gradek said.

“Of course, one of the reasons we see increased traffic in the fall is inflation and travel costs,” he says. “And it’s not just flights, (it’s hotels), car rentals, all that.”

Gradec said airfares will drop in the fall to compensate for the current drop in demand. Airlines will push deals for low-cost air travel in an attempt to “stimulate” demand and drive competition among suppliers to lower fares for passengers, he said.

Weatherhead noted that the emergence of low-cost carriers such as Lynx and Flyer Airlines will keep prices down in the fall. She says air fares are likely to be even cheaper this year, seeing a drop in prices of around 10 percent between late October and late September.

“When we have more options, it becomes more competitive in terms of price,” she says.

But again, Keeter notes that continued “confusion” in the travel industry could play a role in pricing.
Airports such as Heathrow are increasingly short of seats, so she suggests putting passenger caps in place to keep service levels under control.

“When it comes down to it, it’s supply and demand. So if there is more demand for seats, it is clear that the airline will try to recoup some of their losses and increase the price,” she told Global News.

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But it’s not just the airlines — Cater said her tour operators have also been hit by labor shortages and are ramping up their supply. The price of the packages she was selling before the pandemic is “somewhat expensive” during the current inflation, she said.

Keyter and Weatherhead agree, however, if you want to travel anytime between Labor Day and the end of the year, now is the time to book.

“It’s a really great time to travel and get those deals and also avoid crowds, depending on where you’re going,” Weatherhead told GNM.

Travelers should expect the biggest discounts on Canadian and U.S. destinations, but smaller price cuts on European and Caribbean destinations, she said.

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