A strong US dollar is hurting others.

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The greenback is up more than 10% against other major currencies in 2022 – at its highest level in two decades – as investors worried by a global recession rush to the dollar, which is seen as a safe haven in turbulent times. Adding to the dollar’s appeal is the Federal Reserve’s campaign to raise interest rates to combat the highest levels of inflation in decades. That made American investments more attractive, because they now offered higher returns.

American travelers may be rejoicing that a night in Rome that once cost $100 now costs $80, but it’s a more complicated picture for global companies and foreign governments.

About half of international trade is invoiced in dollars, making up the bills for manufacturers and small businesses that depend on imported goods. Governments that have to pay their debts in dollars, especially if the reserves are low, can get into trouble.

A dollar surplus is hurting some vulnerable economies.

The dollar shortage in Sri Lanka led to an economic crisis unprecedented in the country’s history, eventually forcing the president to step down last month. The Pakistani rupee plunged to record lows against the dollar at the end of July, pushing it to the brink of extinction. And Egypt – with soaring food prices – is dealing with depleted dollar reserves and an exodus of foreign investment. All three countries had to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.

“It’s been a challenging environment,” said William Jackson, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

Sri Lankan three-wheeler drivers push their vehicles in a queue near a petrol station on August 2 in Colombo, Sri Lanka.  The island nation faces a severe fuel shortage due to a shortage of foreign currency.

Why the ‘dollar smile’ leads to frustration

The U.S. dollar tends to rise in value when the U.S. economy is very strong, or somewhat conversely, when it is weak and the world faces a recession.

In both cases, investors see the tide as an opportunity to lock in the country’s currency growth or as a relatively safe currency to stop.

Because it occurs at both extremes, the phenomenon is often called the “dollar smile”.

But the rest of the world is less about the smile. Manik Narain, head of cross-asset strategy for emerging markets at UBS, identified three main reasons why a stronger dollar could hurt smaller economies around the world.

1. Fiscal pressure may increase. Not all countries can afford to borrow money domestically because foreign investors lack confidence in their institutions or have less developed financial markets. That means some have no choice but to take out dollar-denominated debt. But if the value of the dollar rises, that drains government coffers and makes it more expensive to service their debt.

It also costs governments or businesses to import food, medicine, and fuel.

That’s what happened when the Sri Lankan rupee fell against the dollar earlier this year. During the outbreak, the government depleted its already low foreign reserves due to the decline in tourism. A shortage of essential goods brought thousands of people to the streets. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country in July when angry protesters seized government buildings.

2. Feeds capital flight. When a country’s currency weakens dramatically, wealthy individuals, companies, and foreign investors begin pulling their money out of safe havens. That devalues ​​the currency, exacerbating fiscal problems.

“If you sit in Sri Lanka these days and see the government being pressured, you want to get your money out,” Narain said.

3. Weigh on progress. If firms can’t buy the imports they need to run their businesses, they won’t have as much inventory. This means that even if demand remains strong when weighing on the economic performance, they will not be able to sell as much.

As the US economy continues to falter, that may mitigate some of the damage. Many emerging markets export goods to the world’s largest economy. But when the dollar strengthens because America is on the brink of recession? It’s hard.

“This could cause more pain in the market because you don’t have the silver lining of better economic growth in the background,” Narain said.

Problematic

The dollar retreated 0.6 percent last week. But it is not expected to change course in any meaningful way anytime soon.

“We look for dollar strength to remain largely intact over the medium to medium term,” Scott Warren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a note to clients.

This is prompting investors and policy makers to ask if Sri Lanka is the first domino to fall. Also, turbulence in emerging markets can spread throughout the financial ecosystem, causing widespread spillover effects.

Brad Setter of the Council on Foreign Relations writes that he is watching Tunisia, which is struggling to meet its budget deficit, as well as heavily indebted Ghana and Kenya. El Salvador has a bond payment due early next year, while Argentina continues to struggle with its latest currency crisis in 2018.
The IMF estimates that 60 percent of low-income countries are in debt distress or at high risk, compared with one-fifth a decade ago.
Volunteers serve free meals to the needy at a community kitchen in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on August 4.

But there are also key differences between the current situation and past crises.

Debt paid in dollars is less than before. Big players like Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia – “generally did not borrow much foreign currency and now hold enough foreign currency to manage their foreign debt burden.”

Additionally, commodity prices such as oil and base metals are high. That helps emerging economies that are major exporters, including many in Latin America, and serves as a safe way to ensure that dollars are still flowing into government coffers.

Inflation has led central banks in many emerging markets to hike ahead of their peers, the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England. Brazil has raised borrowing costs in 12 consecutive meetings since starting the process in March 2021.

Still, much may depend on the fate of the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China. If these growth engines do indeed start to stall, emerging markets may see disappointing investment flows.

Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, said: “It will be critical for the United States to go into recession.” “It makes everyone more vulnerable.”

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