2023 Hawaii Travel Ignition | Bad problems remain

Hawaii’s 2023 campaign is off and running and may be stronger than expected. It follows the latest data indicating record-breaking visitor spending in 2019.

According to data from January to November 2022, visitors spent $17.4 billion here, which was +9% compared to 2019. That came despite actual tourist numbers being -11% at 9.4 million.

West Coast visitors are spending 46% more.

Visitors to Hawaii’s Meat & Potatoes had a big hit last month, with 416k November visitors, up 11% from 2019.

A significant slowdown in tourism is unlikely.

Over the past six months, some have worried about visitor statistics due to the cold economic climate and lack of diversity in Hawaii. So too many or too few visitors continue the question of whipsaw. Our understanding, however, does not suggest a significant slowdown.

As you may recall, we said Christmas and New Year’s holidays would be the next benchmark for 2023 Hawaii travel. Those numbers will take a few more weeks to come in, but based on the November data and what we see here on the ground, we expect them to be very strong. The absence of the usual far-advance holiday bookings was felt.

While neighboring islands rely primarily on strong domestic tourism, Honolulu in particular continues to see a long-awaited slow return of international arrivals. Japanese visitors are still down 90% from average. The global problem will not be helped by the upcoming plan to test all Chinese visitors (and those traveling from China) for Covid before they arrive. Finally, another issue in Hawaii is the lack of team business and conference interest.

Hawaii remains completely on the go.

Apparently, Hawaii is not used to more economic disruption during the Covid-19 period. This is a frustration for many in Hawaii. The state’s UHERO said the lack of diversity “exposes Hawaii’s economy to external threats that could cause a decline in tourist numbers.” In addition, Hawaii’s economic growth has slowed for decades as the dominance of tourism has not led to productivity growth.

Here are the issues visitors to Hawaii will face in 2023.

1. Top Hawaii prices, taxes and fees. Room rates and rental cars have increased by 50% since pre-Covid, which is not unlike other US tourist destinations. We recently mentioned that we pay for vehicles at LAX instead of Hawaii. Higher accommodation rates are in addition to 18% room tax and miscellaneous charges.
2. US inflation and the looming recession. It is not clear how much of a recession there may be or how long it will last. It all depends on what you ask. Inflation seems to be stabilizing, but it’s still a factor when it comes to vacation spending.
3. Top flights. Except for those west coast markets that are still feeling the influence of the southwest, prices have risen significantly since pre-Covid.
4. Service and personnel matters. Recruiting and retaining travel industry employees is a challenge on an industry-wide basis, from ramp agents to concierges to concierges to front desk staff and everything in between.

Coming to Hawaii in 2023?

We’d love to hear your plans.